Well, everybody seems to be jumping on the bandwagons we mentioned in our letter of December 6, 2003. In predicting our outlook for 2004, we said that base metals will be a key area, along with precious metals, energy and foreign currencies as the best investment groups in 2004.Click here to read full article...

SOME POINTS ON GOLD

There was a very important article in the China Daily Hong Kong edition on September 9, 2003 that my friend Larry Jeddeloh of The Institutional Strategist informed me about. It is a long article and hard to fully duplicate here so please let me summarize some main points.
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Happy holidays and best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.Click here to read full article...

Remember our last letter? We stated that we thought that commodities would rise in value and that inflation would return in the long run. Well that is the lead-in to this letter in which we cover some points omitted in our recent missive.
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 GLOBAL EVENTS INDICATE THAT COMMODITIES COULD BE RISING FOR YEARS TO COME

As you know we have been commenting recently about gold, energy and currencies in the context of new bull markets. China and India and their growth have been also been frequent topics of ours. Obviously, the rise to greater affluence of the 1.3 billion people of China and the 1 billion people of India over the next 40 years will lead to a large and continuing bull market for many commodities.
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Before beginning this letter I would like to express thanks to all of you who kindly expressed congratulations on our various investment calls of the last few months. There is no doubt that many of our calls have been correct and I would love to say we are smart and infallible. However, it is always better to be lucky than smart, and it is best to be intuitive and thoroughly informed. We have been correct but we want to remind you that infallibility is a myth. We have made and will make mistakes but hopefully we will learn from these mistakes and not repeat them. Now lets review our recent opinions and update them.Click here to read full article...

There are many new developments taking place in the world of currencies, stock markets and metals as a result of the G-7 meeting which took place last weekend in Dubai, and other events, so we are writing this short note to keep you informed of our opinions.
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Here are a few new ideas and opinions. I hope this fall season finds you well and happy.

Energy
I am not surprised by the strength in energy prices during this “shoulder season” when prices usually decline; the reasons are many and obvious. The most obvious is the failure of the U.S. reconstruction plan in Iraq to unfold the way the Administration’s PR said it would. It appears the cynics, myself included, were correct to doubt that progress would be quick and Iraqi oil would again flow. As we anticipated, sabotage has been one factor. The costs, both human and financial, of the reconstruction of Iraq are much higher than advertised. There will be an economic drag on the US in terms of higher interest rates, higher deficits and subsequent higher bond issuance by the US Treasury, which, in our opinion, will lead to a lower Dollar in the long run.
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We find ourselves in the August doldrums. Things are fairly quiet for US and European stocks. Many investors and traders are on vacation, yet there is plenty of action in other areas.Click here to read full article...

 GOLD

In the last week we have purchased an increased position in gold shares, and for those clients who are willing and able to purchase currency forwards, we purchased the Euro.
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