China

October 06, 2016

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Healthcare and Global Demand Growth Around the world, rising living standards are driving global demand growth for goods and services.  We have often written about the rise of new global middle classes as linchpins of this growth – particularly the...
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April 28, 2016

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Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next...
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April 01, 2016

When Too Much News Can Confuse 1.  GDP grew by 2.4 percent in 2015 — ignore flawed data, including GDPNow. Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth for the U.S. was just revised up to 1.4 percent annualized from an initial reading of...
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March 11, 2016

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No, Chicken Little, the sky ain’t falling Data continue to come in showing that fears of a U.S. recession are groundless — good GDP growth, good job growth, continued improvement in labor force participation, improvement in “underemployment” (when workers want...
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March 04, 2016

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China Stocks Deserve A Look    There were no fireworks at last week’s China summit of the finance ministers and central bankers of the world’s 20 biggest economies; it was a tame and mostly uneventful affair.  Most significantly, China assured...
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February 19, 2016

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Market Summary  Some market sectors have become very good values.  Others need to fall more in price to become attractive.  Seeing the outsized declines in energy, technology, and other sectors has made us quite certain that some values have been...
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January 22, 2016

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How Fast Will the Fed Raise Rates? The “dot plot” of the Federal Reserve shows how the opinions of various FOMC participants stack up, and is published after each meeting.  December’s dot plot suggests that the majority is anticipating four...
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January 15, 2016

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China:  Investor Confusion Leading to Volatility  According to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group (EM Advisor Group), who is our favorite China economic analyst, his “base case” for China has shifted.  Regular readers know that we have followed Mr. Anderson...
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September 04, 2015

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China Is Not Crashing Panic over Chinese stock markets and the Chinese economy is irrational. There has been no historical correlation between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy, and there is no indication that the Chinese economy is...
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August 14, 2015

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Panic of the Day The media thinks it’s big news from China that the Yuan has fallen in U.S. Dollar terms by 4 percent as of this writing. Those who know the facts realize that this isn’t big news. The...
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