Europe

May 13, 2016

Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments:  popular revolts against corruption around the world.  This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know.  Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and...
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April 28, 2016

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Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next...
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February 11, 2016

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Europe’s Banks Are Showing Cracks  We’ve been expressing our worry about the health of the European banking system for years.  Starting in 2012, many European banks relied on “CoCos” — contingent convertible bonds — in an attempt to shore up...
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December 04, 2015

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Sunnis, Shi’ites, and Surprises  After almost five years of civil war, the conflict in Syria has spilled over to Europe in the form of an ongoing refugee crisis, and now through the terrorist attacks in Paris — which, according to...
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June 26, 2015

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Overview of Europe — Good News? The slow-moving train wreck that is Greece is moving along with new developments. The Greek banking system is experiencing a run, and accordingly the European Central Bank (ECB) is continuing to throw them a...
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June 19, 2015

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Investment Summary World economic optimism is rising, and as a result, demand for government bonds is receding. Inflation is starting to be felt in some Asian countries, especially India. We note that new jobs and higher wages are a trend...
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June 08, 2015

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Notable Trends in Global Markets Let’s look around the world at a few big trends. Trend number 1: inflation is coming back in the U.S. and in some countries where the currencies are falling — and this means interest rates,...
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April 28, 2015

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Investors’ Burning Questions Last weekend GIM’s Chief Investment Officer, Monty Guild, gave a speech to investors about world markets. During the Q&A, it became obvious that investors had four central concerns: 1. “The U.S. market is high; how do we...
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April 13, 2015

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The China Bull Rages China’s domestic stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen have put on strong rallies since the middle of 2014. Recently, the China rally shifted into high gear. We believe this outperformance is being driven by the desire...
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March 09, 2015

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New Leaders Are Taking the Growth Baton National Growth Rates Are Shifting As we all know, for the last decade China has been the most impressive grower of the major nations. It is now the world’s second-largest economy. India has...
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