Global Economy

November 17, 2016

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Market Summary   Here is a further summary of what we see to be the likely effects of Trump’s victory.           Banks and Financials Banks and financials will be helped.  The Dodd-Frank Act will not be entirely wiped out, but...
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October 13, 2016

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Global e-Commerce Adoption Isn’t Slowing — It’s Accelerating, and Has Massive Tailwinds U.S. e-Commerce Share Gains (vs Retail) Source:  Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Most investors probably have the impression that e-commerce has moved beyond its initial stages of rapid growth...
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August 26, 2016

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Market Summary Pundits Are Wrong Again: Europe Continues to Grow post-Brexit Prior to the Brexit vote, many pundits were pushing the narrative that Brexit fears would create a big decline in business’ expansion plans.  They believed that the fear of...
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July 07, 2016

Market Summary The Brexit vote and the rise of anti-E.U. parties in Europe show that big changes are underway. Europe The coming changes will be more pronounced in Europe than in the U.K., although the U.K. will also suffer volatility...
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May 19, 2016

Executive Summary 1.  Market summary.  The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends...
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April 28, 2016

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Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next...
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July 10, 2014

Market Summary Economics, U.S. and Global U.S. employment numbers are positive for the last few months, and U.S. industrial production is increasing as we have predicted in these pages. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1 percent, and the U6 —...
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July 03, 2014

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Regulators are Forcing Banks to Get More Conservative Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo addressed the Fed’s symposium on stress test modelling. This is a now-annual gathering of Fed officials and financial industry participants, where the discussion focuses on the Fed’s...
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April 16, 2014

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U.S. Hegemony, Global Flashpoints, and Military Spending In February, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel delivered the Obama administration’s proposed 2015 defense budget. It was notable for the reduction of the U.S. Army to its lowest force level since World War II. It...
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March 27, 2014

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Categories
Cross-Currents Affecting the Markets We see many cross-currents that are currently, or soon will be, affecting U.S. and European markets and thepsychology of investors: Positives: 1. Money is leaving money market funds and moving into stocks in a big way....
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