Current events in Europe show that even if it’s inexorable, the decarbonization of the global economy is unlikely to be smooth. The latest drama swirls around natural gas and the new German government elected in November, which includes more powerful representation from the Green Party than ever before. The Greens Read more…
While bitcoin launched crypto as an asset class, its primary function is simply that of a digital currency. Currently it seems to be displacing gold in the minds of a generation of investors newly concerned about irresponsible monetary policy and fiat debasement — though of course it is for the Read more…
Current events in Kazakhstan underscore the significance of uranium, as nuclear energy enjoys a renaissance. Of course, although Kazakhstan accounts for roughly 40% of world uranium production, it is unlikely that unrest there will be an enduring problem for uranium supplies, although it may be unfortunate for ordinary Kazakhs. The Read more…
With all the ups and downs that have accompanied the pandemic — stay-at-home stocks duking it out with reopening stocks in rounds that have tracked the virus anxiety cycles — mega-cap technology stocks have continued to outperform the broad market. This is a trend visible since early 2020 (top graph), Read more…
Two days before year-end, the S&P 500 is once again near all-time highs. In hindsight (as far as the US stock market is concerned), 2021 was a year where it would have been a good idea to: tune out all of the political haranguing and off-the-charts debt spending, ignore the Read more…
Inflation remains in the front of everyone’s minds — the Fed, investors, business owners, and consumers. It’s interesting to note that inflation was much less in everyone’s mind during the long period of unusually low inflation that followed the Great Financial Crisis. This psychological fact explains a key difficulty faced Read more…
With all the reflection and analysis we’ve been offering about inflation over the past year, we should emphasize again that we do not believe the U.S. is headed for hyperinflation or any imminent financial catastrophe. While we think the very long-term trends of spending, unfunded liabilities, and corporate and government Read more…
The post-pandemic bull market is now getting choppy as it encounters a number of real-world headwinds — the reduction of monetary stimulus, growing conflicts over further fiscal stimulus, slowing liquidity growth, official acknowledgment of persistent inflation, and the growing concern of market participants that a Fed “policy mistake” is unfolding. Read more…
We do not regard current market action as favorable; it is likely the harbinger of a possible near-term correction. As we indicated in our last letter, we believe that 2022 will be a year marked by volatility; the inflation landscape, the Fed’s evolving response, and potential political turmoil surrounding mid-term Read more…
As we come closer to year end, U.S. markets remain, as of this writing, within a percentage point or two of their all-time highs. We have come a long way since the first reports of a new SARS-like virus began to percolate into public awareness in January 2020. The world Read more…
12400 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 820 Los Angeles, CA 90025
1 310 826-8600
Mon-Fri 6:30-4:30
