Both parties are fighting over how to slice the pie. But growth and technology decide its size, and Washington, as usual, is late. In our view, the most consequential contest on November 3 is fundamentally not between the two major U.S. political parties, but rather, between the ideologies inside each
The most useful thing said about artificial intelligence this month came not from a lab unveiling a “smarter” model, but from the chief executive of Microsoft (MSFT) telling his customers to trust their models less. On October 10, Satya Nadella tweeted an argument that companies should treat advanced AI models
Surprisingly, in a humanoid robot, the brain is the cheapest part. Artificial intelligence is what suddenly made human-shaped machines more than a comedy shtick or a Jetsons joke, yet by Bank of America’s estimate the computer that runs one, together with its cameras and sensors, will account for only about
The midterms will fill the void between now and the start of earnings season, but they are not among the three things that at the moment, perhaps, are most influential in strengthening or hurting the attractiveness of stocks. We’d say those three things are the bond market, earnings, and oil
On one point, the competing analysts of Wall Street agree: this is a banner year for corporate profits, with S&P 500 earnings on track to rise by roughly a third. On what comes next, they part ways. (Strategists tend to be moderate in their targets, so we wouldn’t expect anyone
Nearly every economy on earth is growing, and American companies are earning far more than anyone expected in January. Analysts now see S&P 500 earnings per share rising 29% this year over last, up from about 13% when the year began. Stocks have not kept pace; the S&P 500 sits
As we wrote last week, the Treasury said on August 19 that it would at least double its buyback operations in the ten-to-thirty-year sector, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion apiece. Long yields fell on the news… and climbed straight back. Secretary Bessent called it a “Treasury Twist.”
We were planning to write about rates already after watching them climb for months. On Tuesday, as we were wrapping up this piece, yields on thirty-year Treasuries touched 5.339 percent, their highest since 2007. Then on Wednesday morning, the Treasury Department for all intents and purposes said “Enough!” and announced
First: Uranium The tightest areas in the uranium supply chain are downstream of the mine. Uranium itself (that is, processed ore) as we write, is at $86.90 per pound, roughly where it’s been since April. The two stages that come next — converting it into a gas, then “enriching” that
In last week’s commentary, we briefly discussed the destruction and fire sale of a large, highly leveraged hedge fund portfolio called Situational Awareness that was run by a smart 20-something year old. The fund was eyeball-deep in the AI trade; long all the important inputs AI requires (mainly semiconductors), and
Very little has happened in markets these past few weeks that will alter the trajectory of artificial intelligence; a lot has happened regarding the financial market frenzy surrounding it. Here are three items: What is that list? It is just a sample of how when markets are very extended and
Last week, Eli Lilly (LLY) announced that it would buy a development-stage psychedelics biopharma, AtaiBeckley, for roughly $2.8 billion in cash now, and a potential $1 billion more if Atai meets development and regulatory milestones. It may sound like a big number, but it is a drop in the bucket
We were surprised to read that Wall Street has never carried higher expectations into an earnings season than it is carrying into this one — recession rebounds aside. The bottom-up consensus (that is, analysts’ company-by-company estimates, added up) calls for S&P 500 earnings to grow 26.2% from a year ago,
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