While listening to the recent round of quarterly conference calls, we noted that most managements were still discussing supply-chain issues — and saying that these were problems that have not yet been resolved. Trans-Pacific spot shipping rates remain elevated. The Port of Los Angeles, which receives a third of all Read more…
Does the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government matter? It certainly matters to many Afghani individuals who hitched themselves to the American star, and seem to have been unceremoniously abandoned in the chaotic rout that passed for an American withdrawal. It matters to the population of young urban Afghanis who Read more…
The message from earnings season is clear: the negative earnings impact of the pandemic, index-wide, is over. The chart below shows annualized two-year EPS growth. Source: Deutsche Bank Research What remains for investors is first, not to be prematurely spooked out of a market in which sentiment and liquidity are Read more…
Last week, we commented on the likely persistence of the post-pandemic “new normal” in technology, mentioning specifically remote work and e-commerce. In both cases, covid pulled forward years of technological change in the space of a few months. We believe that even though new covid variants will pose challenges, humanity Read more…
Two weeks remain until the Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting at Jackson Hole, from which we may well learn more about the Fed’s intentions on monetary policy. In the meantime, we note that via various technical mechanisms, the Fed and other central banks continue to control and gradually reduce liquidity, Read more…
Really, there is only one long-term question facing investors at this juncture. Will the “new normal” that has emerged from the pandemic be enduring? Or will it prove a temporary aberration that, with however much ease or difficulty, passes and yields to the return of something more akin to the Read more…
We believe that inflation will hover from 3–5% for the next several years, even as it falls from June’s CPI print: 5.4% over the previous 12 months, and 0.9% month-on-month. Five Areas That Merit Your Attention Tech growth at a reasonable price: hardware, services, and software. We would be buyers Read more…
In early June, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing [DIDI] filed for a public stock offering on the New York Stock Exchange. To call DIDI “the Chinese Uber” [UBER] would be an understatement; in fact it might be more accurate to call Uber “the American Didi.” In the past 12 months, Read more…
Earnings season is underway, and market leadership has passed once again, for now, to the big-cap growth stalwarts. We’ll be listening to earnings calls across many sectors and industries to gain some intelligence about how managements are looking at the future — at virus resurgence and the policy response; at Read more…
Productivity growth is one the critical economic variables for investors to watch. For the economy as a whole, it is a key driver of GDP growth, and therefore of broad earnings growth. But within particular sectors and industries, and within particular companies, it drives margin improvements in a way that Read more…
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