July 1 marks the start of the third quarter, which is traditionally the worst quarter for the U.S. and other global stock markets. Of course we don’t know what this year will bring, but as we noted above, we see some reason for caution when we look forward to fall, Read more…
Since the initial supernova of Federal Reserve and Treasury pandemic support for financial markets occurred last April, we have argued that this description-beggaring liquidity explosion was the single most important phenomenon for market participants to see and understand. Correct views and analysis of economic recovery trends and market theme and Read more…
With May data complete, the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI), our proprietary real-world inflation gauge measuring the price of a basket of four essential consumer goods, has backed slightly off April’s 25% year-over-year pace. (You can click here for a more detailed description of how we compile this measure of Read more…
Without getting technical, let’s just say that because of its impact on markets and pricing, liquidity measures (whether from the Fed, China, or other central banks) must be monitored. Much has been reported in the past week about recent Federal Reserve operations, such as increasing interest rates offered on excess Read more…
About the Guild Basic Needs Index Guild Investment Management has long believed that the existing indices used to measure cost of living changes in the United States are inadequate and misleading. For instance, the widely quoted inflation index, the Consumer Price Index, is currently based on data collected from spending Read more…
Having a strategy for each outcome is the key to getting through the confusion. In one environment, “Cash is king.” Yet, in a different (and quite possible) environment where the purchasing power of the currency is declining, cash provides the opposite of security. High growth at a high multiple has Read more…
A big debate is raging about the type of inflationary cycle the world is experiencing. How much higher? For how long? Have we peaked? Is the Fed right? Will the purchasing power of retirement savings collapse? In general, markets prefer clarity to uncertainty and confusion. Markets look for leadership, trends, Read more…
Post Fed Meeting Unwind of Many Crowded Inflation/Commodity Trades Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting concluded with a message that they are monitoring many of the rising costs and the inflation pressures in parts of the economy, and that there is a plan to reduce accommodative asset purchases and raise interest Read more…
Last week, we noted that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation that has become an investing commonplace in the past several decades has historically produced many “lost decades” — periods of ten years or more that saw little to no advance in the portfolio’s real value. Source: GMO Capital Of Read more…
The week saw interesting developments on the cryptography and cryptocurrency fronts. A massive international sting operation was revealed in which U.S. and Australian law enforcement had marketed compromised smartphones to sophisticated criminal users through an informant on the Dark Web, advertising them as cryptographically secure for communications. The allegedly secure Read more…
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