The current investment environment suggests one critical lesson to us: the future into which we are moving is going to be very different from the immediate past. Therefore, investment strategies which have become standard-issue conventional wisdom over the past few decades are going to fail. Investors will have to reach Read more…
As we noted in our main piece this week, we believe it’s very important for investors to revisit their commodity allocation now, while rising inflation is still in early innings. We’re cautious on some commodities that have run recently, such as copper and iron ore, and while we still like Read more…
One lasting effect of the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains has been a shortage of chips. This is not primarily a shortage of the advanced semiconductors which some industry leaders have increasingly favored because of their higher margins; rather, it’s the commoditized, workhorse chips that are now essential components Read more…
Various Fed officials, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida, have taken to the airwaves to talk down inflation concerns and show confidence in the Fed’s ability to engineer a “soft landing” when the time comes to curtail pandemic-era policy. This has given markets a tone of uneasy quiet. Economist Mohamed El-Arian Read more…
At this point in the post-pandemic recovery, a lot depends on who is right in the very lively “transitory vs. persistent” inflation debate. For investors, the question is particularly sharp. If you believe that Fed Chair Powell and Team Transitory are correct, you will position your portfolio quite differently than Read more…
The correction we have been expecting for some time is now underway. Inflation Breakout: Demand Pull Moving To Cost Push Inflation has broken out and gold has broken out to a two- or three-month high. We suggest that investors use dips to buy gold, silver, copper, and other industrial metals Read more…
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall Read more…
A month ago, as inflation talk claimed more investor attention, we revived our in-house inflation index — the Guild Basic Needs Index — which was designed as a simple and straightforward snapshot of the on-the-ground inflation picture faced by consumers, not gamed or massaged by statistical sleight of hand. (If Read more…
Earnings season is a busy time at Guild, since our management style emphasizes the careful selection of individual stocks rather than broad indices. That means that we typically have two or three dozen company conference calls to listen to; we find that significant details are often neglected in the summary Read more…
Rising inflation expectations may be even more important for investors than rising inflation. These expectations are forcing individual investors and money managers to include a new factor in their models and strategies that has been absent for the better part of two generations. Notably, expectations are essentially aspects of human Read more…
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