Of the critical macro variables for investors to watch, inflation is one of the most important. Current inflation, as well as prospective changes in inflation levels and direction can result in very different outlooks for asset classes, sectors and industries, and entire economies. In the post-2008 era, broad inflation has Read more…
If inflation is coming, as we described above, those investors who remember the inflation of the 1970s should know that it will not necessarily look like it did back then. The economy is radically different in sectoral composition and weighting; industries are radically different technologically; people’s appetites and needs for Read more…
Back in late August, the Federal Reserve announced a new policy framework. It pledged to target an average inflation rate of 2%, letting it run above 2% for potentially prolonged periods; and it said that it would not respond to an improving employment picture with pre-emptive rate increases. Around the Read more…
Hong Kong had a rough 2020, hit by the pandemic, by escalating tensions between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China, and by ongoing resistance in Hong Kong to the effective early end of the “one country, two systems” policy that had once seen the PRC largely leave Hong Read more…
As we write, the results of Georgia’s elections are down to the wire, but it looks likely that the Democratic Party will capture both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats. That would give us a 50/50 split in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker — in Read more…
Back in 2017, we wrote about the incredibly rapid pace of growth in Chinese e-commerce and financial technology. To say the least, there’s been some water under the bridge since then — particularly the intensification of the economic and geopolitical conflict between China and the U.S. But one of our Read more…
We wish all our readers a happy New Year. In our view, those who reckon 2020 as “the worst year ever” (such as Time magazine) need some education about the world’s dark historical catalog of plague, war, and sundry catastrophe. Still, it was certainly a challenging year, and we are Read more…
The trajectory of markets in 2020 has been extraordinary and unexpected. Looking back, both the depth of the pandemic crash and the strength of the rally that has followed it make sense. They were the product, on the one hand, of severe lockdowns, economic closures, and uncertainty; and on the Read more…
As we noted above, on a tactical basis, we believe a correction or consolidation is becoming visible on the horizon. The market’s rise into year-end has been strong, and as good as the big-picture backdrop is, no market goes up in a straight line forever. When the pullback or consolidation Read more…
The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it. We agree with much of the bullish thesis. Historic excess liquidity, the control of the pandemic, fiscal support, reopening economies, and energized digitization all seem to be near-unarguable Read more…
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