U.S. markets have continued sideways after their decline from late August highs. As noted above, deal volume is high, with many new offerings, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors. We’ve been busy reading prospectuses and listening to presentations. We’re impressed by the difference between this time and the buildup Read more
For a few weeks we’ve been explaining our optimistic view of the waning SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Data suggest that vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic is already beginning to fade. Positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all continuing to fall, even as life continues to return to Read more
U.S. markets this week have arrested their rapid slide from last week’s highs. Reports suggest that the NASDAQ’s ramp to new highs was accelerated by large-scale options trading which was then unwound as the suspected traders took profits. It remains to be seen if the correction has run its course Read more
There seem to be plenty of reasons for pessimism right now. Even just on the surface, so much disaster and risk: a global pandemic… political polarization at all-time highs… an election coming up so fraught that both sides are talking about civil unrest if the result is not immediately clear… Read more
Another week, another report of new market highs and apparent absurdities. Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] alone, as of this writing, has exceeded the valuation of the entire Russell 2000 index. Truly, we live in interesting times. As this note goes to press, a sharp drop in U.S. markets is showing that Read more
For some time the market’s action has reminded us of a verse from the New Testament: For whoever has, to him more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but whoever does not have, even what he has shall be taken away from him. Matthew 13:12 (Of course Read more
For the United States, the passing of last week’s Bradley Date has reinforced the existing trend. Markets have continued higher, led by the beneficiaries and themes noted above: primarily, the technology companies whose products have permitted many businesses and individuals to function, even to thrive, in the midst of the Read more
For several weeks we’ve been presenting data that offer reasons for optimism in the face of the covid pandemic. We see reasons to think that the public health dimension of the pandemic may be closer to a resolution than the consensus believes. Better understanding of the demographics of the most Read more
The S&P has capped its post-crisis recovery to reach new highs; and in spite of how rapid the climb has seemed, it is not very different from the trajectory off the 2009 crisis lows: We continue to be basically bullish on U.S. stocks. Technology continues to move ahead, while cyclicals Read more
Markets have continued to rise and fall on the basis of the prospects for the rollout of an effective covid vaccine. Recent news from Russia that their authorities had approved a vaccine was greeted by market enthusiasm and medical skepticism, since the treatment hasn’t been through complete safety and efficacy Read more
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