The widely watched two-to-ten-year U.S. Treasury interest rate curve inverted briefly on Wednesday, and remains essentially flat as of this writing. The yield on the longest-dated Treasuries fell to all-time lows. The backdrop, we trust, is well-known to our readers: anxiety about trade wars, fears about slowing global growth, and Read more…
On August 5, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that its governing board had voted four to one to back the creation of a real-time, round-the-clock payment and settlement service, to be called FedNow. The goal of this service would be to set up an infrastructure to allow payments between banks Read more…
Market Summary The U.S.: Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Since we wrote last week, a trifecta of disappointing Fed communication, trade-war escalation, and self-reinforcing recession fears have accompanied an S&P 500 decline of about 4.7% as of this writing, and a strong rally in bonds (as interest rates decline) and gold. Read more…
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold U.S. investors woke up on Wednesday to news of surprisingly aggressive rate cuts from India, New Zealand, and Thailand, as more Asia Pacific central banks act to preempt a global economic slowdown. At its last meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve called an Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the benchmark fed funds rate by 0.25% on Wednesday, as expected, and also ended the runoff of its portfolio of bonds a month early. Fed Chair Powell said, “The outlook for the U.S. economy remains favorable and this Read more…
Over the past year, three U.S. tech giants have been jostling for position atop the list of largest companies by market capitalization: Amazon [NASDAQ: AMZN], Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL], and Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT]. All are valued above $900 billion, with MSFT recently taking the top spot — at $1.07 trillion as Read more…
The U.S. Earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. While earnings growth has stalled after the tax-break driven pace of growth that was enjoyed in 2018, it remains broadly within the trend of growth that has followed the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Source: Bloomberg, LLP Of course, there Read more…
After Iranians shot down a U.S. drone over the Gulf of Oman in June, President Trump publicly discussed his reticence to engage in a conventional retaliatory strike against Iran, citing his desire to avoid disproportionate human casualties. Less reported was the unconventional response that the U.S. allegedly made shortly thereafter, Read more…
Is Gold’s Rally More Than a Flash In the Pan? At the end of January, we wrote: “Gold has been a stellar performer in 2019, and our bullish attitude is undiminished. We are believers that (1) slow economic growth in much of the world, (2) some rising inflationary trends in Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. stock markets advanced rapidly in June, finally rising to new all-time highs. With the S&P 500 at the top of its trend channel, and several technical signals suggesting that it is overbought, a near-term correction would be normal. In our more active strategies, Read more…
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