Executives at two of the big U.S. railroad companies, CSX [NYSE: CSX] and Union Pacific [NYSE: UNP] report that growing shipment volumes lead them to feel optimistic about the growth of the U.S. economy. (CSX reported on January 16, and UNP on January 24.) Railroads are often considered a bellwether Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Stock Market The U.S. economy continues to move ahead as do the U.S. stock market and U.S. corporate profits, which as we all know, lead the outlook for stocks. Most agree that the growth rate of the economy will slow in 2019, after the Read more…
Here is another note in our ongoing series of articles addressing China’s economic situation. Many times in the past, we have pointed out that official Chinese economic statistics can mislead analysts, and we suspect that we’re about to see a manifestation of that problem. Here’s why. At the beginning of Read more…
The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018. For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation. U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019. Read more…
The Chinese growth slowdown that we’ve commented on in recent letters — which was underway well before the beginning of escalated trade tensions last year — will probably lead regional central banks to ease, or to remain steady rather than tightening monetary conditions in 2019. While China has done some Read more…
The trade conflict is still underway; we just read this morning about the statement made by China’s vice president, Wang Qishan, criticizing the U.S. administration’s trade policies at Davos. We continue to believe that a deal will be reached in the near term on the disagreements that are easier to Read more…
U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains. Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we Read more…
On Tuesday, 118 members of British Prime Minister Teresa May’s Conservative Party broke ranks and voted against her proposed deal for the UK to leave the European Union. The deal was defeated 432 to 202, showcasing the profound dissatisfaction that UK lawmakers feel for the deal as it stands — Read more…
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