China Recently, developments in China indicate an almost chaotic exit to the country’s “zero covid” policy, suggesting potential opportunities in Chinese equities — which are still highly under-owned by global investors. In our view, as a brief, counter-trend technical euphoria in U.S. markets fades, a recession continues to loom over Read more…
A few significant events and data releases helped propel a relief rally yesterday. First, the release of Q3 GDP for the U.S., which was revised up to 2.9%. Second, JOLTS jobs data, which showed that the Fed’s tightening is having some impact on the labor market, but far from a Read more…
As we enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and the usually quiet half-day of trading that follows on Friday, a few notes on current events of potential significance that we are watching. First, China. Due to China’s central role as an engine of global commodity demand, sentiment in world stock markets can Read more…
The ripples continue to spread from the collapse of what has now been revealed as an epochal fraud at FTX, formerly the world’s third-largest crypto exchange. The first blow came with revelations on the CoinDesk website, which had obtained a balance-sheet of FTX’s crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research, suggesting it Read more…
More Evidence the Inflation Spike Is In the Rear View Mirror PPI (producer price inflation) data yesterday showed slowing inflation impulses, as we have discussed. Even our own index of basic essential needs (representing food, clothing, shelter, and energy components) reflect a sharp slow down in price increases from this Read more…
The Fed “We still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” Jerome Powell, Nov 2 2022 By one significant measure, the Fed has succeeded. In the wake of the pandemic fiscal Read more…
Last weekend concluded the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at which a new slate of Chinese leaders were presented: the Politburo, and most significantly, the Politburo’s seven-member Standing Committee. As had been widely expected, President Xi Jinping broke with the precedent established by his predecessors which Read more…
Accelerating GDP data (annualized quarter-over-quarter at 2.6%, with the real-time “GDP Now” estimate running over 3%) and cooling PCE inflation data (4.5%) in the U.S. that were just released suggest that some of the most bearish economic prognostications have had the wind taken out of their sails. Earnings season is Read more…
With the S&P 500 bouncing off very long support at the 200-week moving average, the stage may be set for the bear market to get a breather. Inflation remains a clear problem, but as we have been telling you for some time, inflation will eventually begin to settle back from Read more…
Investors with eyes riveted on upcoming CPI data have had to make a few glances across the Atlantic to the financial (and perhaps soon-to-be-political) trainwreck in the UK. The wreck has centered on UK pension funds that had leveraged themselves in order to meet actuarial targets rendered impossible by a Read more…
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