We commented in a recent letter that a change in investor sentiment from “catastrophically bad” to “merely bad” could occasion a strong rally. It seems that the end of the third quarter saw sentiment decline to a recent nadir, and the stock market with it. (September is a notoriously difficult Read more…
Fed Chair Powell tried to channel Paul Volcker at Jackson Hole. Insiders report that the market’s reaction to his July press conference was to assume that a pivot to easier policy was coming — so he scrapped his prepared remarks for Jackson Hole and instead delivered a short, blunt message Read more…
First we reviewed the great bull/bear debate; then we gave a rundown of global stocks; last week we described our view of the positioning of the high-level asset classes. Today we’ll round out the high-level tour with some analysis of global currencies. Cash is of course one of the main Read more…
After our review of the great bull/bear debate, and last week’s rundown of global stocks, we thought it would be useful this week to zoom out even further to the asset class level. We’ll briefly examine where various asset classes stand in the context of current global developments; what sort Read more…
Our editor, Rudi von Abele, is taking a much-deserved week off. We apologize in advance that instead of polished, well written research analysis, this week you will get the musings of a portfolio manager. Do not despair, Rudi will return next week, and we will all be more intelligent for Read more…
We’ve been planning for a few weeks to write a brief rundown of the case to be made on each side of the market, bull vs. bear. The market’s pullback from its recent high, though, which began on August 16, is strengthening the bears’ case. The remarks of Fed Chair Read more…
All ears are waiting to hear what Fed Chair Powell has to say at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Much of the recent rally was predicated on a tacit assumption by market participants that Powell has hinted at a “pivot” in his remarks after July’s FOMC meeting. We don’t believe that a Read more…
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its preliminary second-quarter report on labor productivity and labor costs. The headline numbers were worrisome — showing the second quarter in a row of sharp declines in non-farm labor productivity. The decline improved a little month-over-month, but year-over-year it was the sharpest Read more…
Is it a top yet for the bear market rally? It has continued to march on into the teeth of skepticism from many professional money managers, who according to surveys, remain at the peak of bearishness even as they are almost fully invested (yes, again the phenomenon of the “fully Read more…
While some economic data — notably year-over-year GDP growth — are flashing “recession,” some other important data are contributing to positive investor and trader psychology, and helping maintain the current counter-trend stock market rally. It can be awhile before reality comes calling… and that means that we wouldn’t want to Read more…
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