Uncategorized
June 03, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Bonds not risky? Think again. At the present juncture, equities are not the only risk assets. As we stand near the end of a 30-year credit cycle, bond yields are poised to rise. We don’t know how fast — that depends on many factors affecting the global Read more…
Economics
May 26, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Ordinary people aren’t very ordinary. Professor Deirdre McCloskey’s recent piece in The Wall Street Journal got us thinking about the roots of western prosperity — and suggested that current nervousness about populist movements around the globe may be missing the mark. Don’t be too alarmed by rising Read more…
E-commerce
May 19, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election Read more…
Economics
May 13, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments: popular revolts against corruption around the world. This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know. Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and ordinary people have usually accepted them with stoic resignation. But Read more…
Biotechnology
May 5, 2016
Biotech: Still An Innovation Engine Biotech had a tough second half of 2015, and a tough beginning to 2016; between July’s high last year, and the February 2016 low, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) registered a nearly 40 percent decline, with an uneven recovery thereafter. Read more…
China
April 28, 2016
Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next two to three years.” Since then we have continued to Read more…
