Investors are Concerned About Future Fed Behavior… Especially Interest Rate Increases We read carefully the comments by Fed vice-chairman Fischer — the eminent, wise, and experienced central banker. Mr. Fischer believes that U.S. rates will probably rise late in late 2015. Rates will rise at least partially due to the Read more…
The Kondratiev Wave: Today and in the Great Depression As regular readers know, we have for years talked about Nikolai Kondratiev and his theory of long waves in economic and social life — a theory with which we are in general agreement. Here’s a brief refresher on Kondratiev waves (also Read more…
Market Summary With Euro QE underway, the common currency is falling hard and fast, racking up two days of nearly 1.5 percent declines in the space of a week. Given the price of U.S. stocks, we are cautious on the U.S. market. We remain bullish on the U.S. Dollar, and Read more…
New Leaders Are Taking the Growth Baton National Growth Rates Are Shifting As we all know, for the last decade China has been the most impressive grower of the major nations. It is now the world’s second-largest economy. India has been a tolerable grower — but a huge underachiever given Read more…
Five Bull Markets Around the World — Thanks To Central Banks The U.S. — We’re BullishThe U.S. does not have a QE program at all now, but the U.S. stock and bond markets are getting support from the dovishness of the Fed minutes. In spite of much improved economic growth in Read more…
India and China: India Ascendant The Chinese market is cheap, but economic growth will continue to slow, since China has become too big to grow as rapidly as it did for the first two decades after its reforms. India may be poised to take the growth baton. To write about China and Read more…
The Currency War Is On — What Does It Mean For Your Portfolio? Many world currencies are being devalued, and it is the beginning of a potential currency war. This, more than any other current or historical event, gives us a direction for the future of investing and shows us Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Low inflation in the crosshairs of global central banks. From rate cuts in India, Canada, Singapore, and Peru, to the initiation of a large sovereign-bond purchase program in Europe, governments and central banks around the world are stepping up their fight against the anemic inflation — or Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Market fears? Unjustified. 2015 opened to a rocky start, with the S&P 500 falling seven out of the first ten days and down 4.5 percent from December’s highs. We deconstruct the market’s fears — of disorderly global currencies and commodity prices, and of inflation and recession lurking Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Investment themes for 2015. Low inflation, an improving employment picture, rising real disposable income, accelerating GDP growth, and a dovish Fed all continue to make a strong case for U.S. stocks in 2015. We favor companies with strong fundamentals in industries supported by macro trends — transportation, Read more…
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