Our Outlook for 2014 in Brief North America U.S.: As we have been saying, the economy in the U.S. will grow in 2014 by a surprising amount. Corporate spending is rising and employment will follow. We anticipate U.S. GDP growth real growth of 3.5 percent and inflation of 1.2 percent, for total Read more…
Investment Summary We remain bullish on U.S. stocks, and as we mention from time to time we remain bearish on the U.S. bond market. In our opinion, bonds have rolled over after a 30+ year bull market and we expect bond prices to continue to fall. Today, the differential between the U.S. Read more…
Private Infrastructure Investment Larry Summers didn’t get nominated to run the Fed, but he certainly still has the President’s ear. A piece of analysis we read recently pointed us towards an op ed article he wrote for the Financial Times in mid-October. That piece suggested two lines of thought which we Read more…
Small Banks Feel the Regulatory Squeeze Through our own contacts in community and regional banks, we have heard many accounts of the effect of post-crisis regulations on this sector of the U.S. economy. The chart below outlines the consolidation of the banking sector. Source: Investor’s Business Daily Read more…
Yieldcos: Spinoffs Seek Tax and Other Advantages for Renewable Projects Government support is providing powerful tailwinds for renewable energy projects. Despite some public relations problems, the Obama administration’s clear policies still favor renewables over any type of hydro-carbons — even domestically produced oil and gas. Until recently, investors wishing to invest Read more…
Japan: The Market Still Driven by the Yen and Monetary Policy Since last year’s elections that brought Shinzo Abe to power in Japan, analysts have been consistent in one message: ultimately, the success or failure of Abe’s attempt to bring Japan back from its long stagnation depends on his ability to enact Read more…
Janet Yellen As Fed Chair — What Does It Mean for Investors? Dr. Janet Yellen is a Keynesian and monetary dove. According to her writings, her speeches, and now her confirmation hearing, she believes that the U.S. economy is not operating at capacity, and that Federal Reserve activities can improve economic activity Read more…
Why the U.S. Economy Will Strengthen We’ve been arguing that the U.S. economy will strengthen, and in the past week we got more indicators suggesting why this will happen. We’ve Been Bullish On U.S. Stocks As readers know, it is our view that we are at the stage of the economic Read more…
As the Trauma of 2008 Fades in the Rearview Mirror, How Much Longer Before Businesses Act in a More Growth-oriented Manner? U.S. business is growing slowly, and Business Confidence is returning. 1. The U.S. economy is poised to grow at a more rapid rate. The U.S. is not alone. In spite Read more…
Bank Reform: Europe’s Slow and Steady Progress Continues When Spain’s real estate bubble burst in 2008, the country went into a recession. The country was returning to growth in 2010, just in time to be taken down by the continent’s emerging banking and sovereign debt crisis. Since then, concerns about the stability Read more…
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