First we reviewed the great bull/bear debate; then we gave a rundown of global stocks; last week we described our view of the positioning of the high-level asset classes. Today we’ll round out the high-level tour with some analysis of global currencies. Cash is of course one of the main Read more…
Emerging Markets Beyond China: Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform. We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets Read more…
Market Summary for Week of February 22, 2019 This week we are keeping it short. We remain bullish on the U.S., and on several foreign markets. The U.S. market is still a buy, in our opinion. Breakouts of the type we have recently seen offer opportunity for higher U.S. stock Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen. U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that Read more…
Brazil’s 81-seat senate just elected a new leader. (The “president of the senate” is third in line to Brazil’s presidency.) It was not the old leader, who had served four two-year terms in the role: a well-known deal-maker who, like many establishment politicians in Brazil, is facing allegations of corruption. Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Stock Market The U.S. economy continues to move ahead as do the U.S. stock market and U.S. corporate profits, which as we all know, lead the outlook for stocks. Most agree that the growth rate of the economy will slow in 2019, after the Read more…
The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018. For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation. U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019. Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more…
As we have done for decades, we are writing with our favorite global investments for 2019. This prediction is for the first half of 2019. If there is no world recession in 2019 and one is not expected for 2020, or if a good trade settlement is reached with China, Read more…
The Global Reform Wave Rolls On: Former Leaders Jailed in Brazil and South Korea Almost two years ago, we wrote about the rise of populist and anti-corruption movements around the world, and told you that we believed these movements would expand, intensify, and disrupt global politics and economics, possibly for decades. Read more…
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