Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and Read more…
Many forces are at work that could result in a correction for U.S. markets: uncertainty around the trajectory of the pandemic; the worrisome prospect of a contested presidential election; and typical seasonal weakness. And yet, as we write, the S&P 500 remains near an all-time high. Why? The investment backdrop Read more…
The news is shifting. Covid-19 is still front and center, of course. As we noted last week, we think the pandemic’s development is not as alarming as many believe. With several months of data now available, it has become clearer that the virus’ risks are heavily skewed towards older individuals Read more…
Global stock markets reacted to the ongoing COVID-19 scare with unusual volatility last week, with U.S. stocks shedding about $4 trillion in value over six bruising sessions. The decline marked the fastest 10% correction from the peak in S&P 500 history (during 1987, the peak was in August, months before Read more…
U.S. and Global Stocks We don’t believe that last week’s declines represented a rational response to neutral analysis of the risks posed by COVID-19. The data we have so far lead us to believe that those risks are relatively modest — that COVID-19 will not be a global black swan, Read more…
Although the news is focused on the human drama of COVID-19 — with quarantines, heroism, tragedy, and fear — economists and financial analysts are busy working through different scenarios for the impact that the epidemic will have on economic activity and economic growth, both in the most affected countries and Read more…
The rollout of 5G wireless internet presents an enormous economic opportunity, since it will involve the construction and deployment of hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure, and ultimately enable the creation of trillions of dollars’ worth of economic value. The companies that provide that infrastructure will be some Read more…
Last week, in our Market Summary, we commented: “A correction could come in one of two forms — either a boring, sideways grind lasting several months, or a sharp decline of 4–8%, coincident with some appropriate externality, followed by a renewed uptrend. The recent outbreak of a SARS-like coronavirus in Read more…
At the very end of 2019, China added liquidity to its financial system by loosening the reserve requirements for banks and allowing them to lend more. This move followed three other such cuts earlier in the year, making a total of seven since early 2018. Cutting required reserves is a Read more…
The U.S. U.S. stocks continue to forge ahead. In the ebb and flow of news related to trade, impeachment, geopolitics, and the 2020 election, we continue to note underlying reasons for strength. (Of course, the market may decline by 1–4% at any time). One of these reasons is the perpetually Read more…
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