Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
Emerging Markets Beyond China: Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform. We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets Read more…
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a Read more…
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see Read more…
In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water. Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source: Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the Read more…
Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security Many intelligence analysts and agencies around the world are concerned that Chinese tech giant Huawei, as it sells hardware, software, and services around the globe, is working hand-in-glove with the Chinese government to further its geopolitical ambitions. These concerns are not limited to Read more…
After the closing session of the National People’s Congress, Chinese second-in-command Li Keqiang addressed various measures that the Chinese government has taken to spur economic growth, and suggested more to come in the future. Source: Xinhua Li noted cuts to value-added taxes (slated to take effect on April 1), cuts Read more…
As our regular readers know, we like to point out that the Chinese stock market’s performance is much more closely related to retail investor sentiment than are other major world markets. This is because the Chinese domestic stock market (“A sharesâ€) is relatively small compared to the Chinese economy, relatively Read more…
Executive Summary 1. The Trump administration deepens its drive for transparent healthcare pricing. In February, the Trump administration asked for comments on a proposed rule with potentially vast effects on the entire U.S. healthcare sector. A rule that came into effect in January already required hospitals to make their list Read more…
Last year, MSCI — the company that constructs the indexes underlying many major ETFs and benchmarks — began to incorporate some domestically traded Chinese stocks into those indexes. These stocks, called “A shares” to distinguish them from other classes of Chinese shares that trade on exchanges outside the mainland, had Read more…
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