In early November, we wrote about the rise of state actors in cybercrime. pointing out the particular interests and strategies of Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China in their attacks on U.S. targets. A few days ago, The Wall Street Journal reported on a new cybersecurity assessment of the U.S. Read more…
Over the past several years, we have written often about the views of China that are commonly promoted in mainstream news and the financial press — views that China is an economic and geopolitical juggernaut which could soon eclipse the United States in power and influence. We do not believe Read more…
California Wildfires Our letter is slightly abbreviated this week, as several of Guild’s staff have been affected by the southern California wildfires. We are all safe, although many friends and family members have lost their homes; thank you for your concern and calls. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level Read more…
For several years we have been alerting our readers to the dangers posed by the over-leverage of the Chinese financial system. Eventually this over-leverage could result in a financial crisis within China. Direct contagion would be limited because China’s financial system is largely separate from the rest of the world’s, Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more…
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more…
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more…
The Yuan’s Falling, and the Market’s Not Panicking The steep drop in the value in U.S. dollar terms of the Chinese yuan contributed a lot to the difficulties experienced by the U.S. stock market in 2015 and 2016. The yuan’s initial sharp devaluation in early August, 2015 caused the S&P Read more…
Let’s Make A Deal, China Edition Since the correction that began in late February, the U.S. stock market has been laboring under many fears. These fears fall into two basic categories — the rational and the irrational. A fear can be rational or irrational on its face; no one would Read more…
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