Market Summary We begin by wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019. The U.S. stock market just concluded the worst week near the Christmas holidays in many years, and some stock market participants have been panicking. Then the economic news arrived yesterday morning. Mastercard [NYSE: MA] announced that holiday Read more
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more
Drama has unfolded in emerging markets, starting last week as the Trump administration stiffened tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, exacerbating the Turkish lira’s sharp decline. Stock markets soured globally as investors tried to determine whether Turkey’s problems were relatively isolated, or if there could be wider ramifications. European financials Read more
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more
The Yuan’s Falling, and the Market’s Not Panicking The steep drop in the value in U.S. dollar terms of the Chinese yuan contributed a lot to the difficulties experienced by the U.S. stock market in 2015 and 2016. The yuan’s initial sharp devaluation in early August, 2015 caused the S&P Read more
What Are Digital Currencies — And What Do They Mean For Gold? Bitcoin is in the news, once again driven by a price spike that makes speculators and would-be speculators start counting their unhatched chickens. This time, the granddaddy digital currency has competitors — “altcoins” — which are also attracting Read more
Will The Dollar Resume Its Rally? We think so, but only after the dollar falls for a few more weeks. We believe that it will rally again later in 2015, on the basis of central bank policy — which is leading up to tightening in the U.S., but still in Read more
Market Summary With Euro QE underway, the common currency is falling hard and fast, racking up two days of nearly 1.5 percent declines in the space of a week. Given the price of U.S. stocks, we are cautious on the U.S. market. We remain bullish on the U.S. Dollar, and Read more
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