Drama has unfolded in emerging markets, starting last week as the Trump administration stiffened tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, exacerbating the Turkish lira’s sharp decline. Stock markets soured globally as investors tried to determine whether Turkey’s problems were relatively isolated, or if there could be wider ramifications. European financials Read more…
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Stock and Bond Markets As trade tensions have escalated during 2018, we have told our readers that we would inform them if we believed the likelihood of a real trade war was becoming greater. Although a full-blown trade war has not yet broken out, we now Read more…
For the first several years of the post-recession period, U.S. growth and value stocks tracked one another pretty closely. They began to diverge in 2014, and in 2017, that divergence accelerated rapidly. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Does the recent faltering of tech tell us that a change may be coming Read more…
LIBOR is Dead — Long Live LIBOR! A week ago, we read an interesting piece in Bloomberg: “LIBOR Refuses To Die, Setting Up $370 Trillion Benchmark Battle.” Readers may be familiar with the LIBOR — the “London Interbank Offered Rate.” If you bear with the discussion that follows, we’ll explain why this Read more…
Executive Summary Recession outlook: an update. The U.S. market remains locked in a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and rising earnings. The market is about unchanged this year after a great deal of fluctuation. After several recent prominent earnings reports from major companies which had positive comments about continued growth, Read more…
Kicking the Bull Market’s Tires Since the beginning of the year, we have been letting readers know that we expected greater volatility in 2018. Such calm predictions are easy to make before the volatility has arrived. Once it has arrived, of course, it feels much more alarming than it did Read more…
Productivity Growth Will Push Stocks Higher After a long slump, productivity growth is accelerating again — and the reasons for the acceleration further reinforce our view that we are in a late, bullish phase of the economic and market cycle, with more upside to come for stocks. As we have Read more…
What Richard Thaler Has Taught Us About Economics… and Markets On October 9, this year’s economics Nobel winner was announced: Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago. Mostly, the advances made by economists who win the Nobel can seem a little abstruse, but Mr Thaler’s contribution is different. To understand Read more…
Is Your Portfolio Prepared For the New Market Environment? The change that is underway in U.S. markets is no run-of-the-mill, short-term shift. This is a sea-change — not business as usual. We’re referring to the end of a thirty-year period during which interest rates were falling — a thirty-year bull Read more…
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