India — Modi’s Budget Is Growth-Oriented and As Expected The release last week of the first budget from India’s new administration was about what investors expected. The Indian stock market had already run up substantially this year in anticipation of a likely victory by business-friendly Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Read more…
Market Summary Economics, U.S. and Global U.S. employment numbers are positive for the last few months, and U.S. industrial production is increasing as we have predicted in these pages. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1 percent, and the U6 — often called the underemployment rate — has fallen to 12.1 percent. Read more…
Cash Influx Into Peripheral Europe Grows Again Foreign direct investment into the peripheral countries of the Eurozone was in retreat from 2007 on. Inflows are still low compared to pre-crisis levels, but there are signs that there is renewed appetite for opportunity in the economies hit worst by the global financial crisis Read more…
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Gets Support For Corporate Tax Cuts Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has struggled to maintain the momentum of the ambitious reforms he set in motion when his party came to power in December, 2012. Broadly, those reforms aimed to jolt Japan out of a decades-long period of Read more…
India — Growth Ahead: a Plan for Inclusiveness Under the New Prime Minister A New Day: the Congress Party’s Ineffectual and Corrupt Leadership Is Out For At Least Five Years The new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is known for the economic growth that he brought Read more…
Two Key Themes That Are Not Widely Known —But Which Will Affect You and Your Life Substantially Key Theme #1: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is going to change healthcare delivery in the U.S. in many ways… thus far, our research indicates that most of these changes are bad for the Read more…
A Note on Solar Energy Economics We recently read a piece of analysis on solar power generation that we thought was worth passing on to our readers. Even though the naïve and unreasonable pursuit of renewables can put a whole economy in the soup, as we noted above, governments are very likely Read more…
Investment Summary U.S. stock market earnings and growth prospects remain positive. The U.S. market is having a normal correction, and we will use this opportunity to spend some of the cash we have raised to buy stocks at a discount. The U.S. trailing P/E as of December 31, 2013 was about 16 Read more…
Investment Summary The four emerging trends mentioned above are all significant parts of understanding the investment picture for 2014 and for the remainder of the decade. Trend #1: With large banks curtailing commodity trading businesses, there should be less risk of instability in commodity markets. The U.S. banking system could actually be Read more…
The Bullish Case for 2014: Productivity Growth is the Key We are looking forward to 2014 with optimism, and we believe the key factor supporting the U.S. and global economies in the present phase of the economic cycle will be productivity growth. Our comments below were prompted by a similar analysis recently Read more…
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