Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more…
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more…
Where Are the Worst EM Troubles? Emerging-market stocks, for U.S. investors, have not been treated kindly by trade-war saber rattling during 2018 — as of this writing, down more than 17% from their late-January highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Until trade conflicts took center stage, though, emerging markets performed well Read more…
Drama has unfolded in emerging markets, starting last week as the Trump administration stiffened tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, exacerbating the Turkish lira’s sharp decline. Stock markets soured globally as investors tried to determine whether Turkey’s problems were relatively isolated, or if there could be wider ramifications. European financials Read more…
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more…
India Economics: Steaming Ahead The Indian stock market has seen a strong year, continuing the rise from the bottom at the end of 2016. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP When expressed in U.S. dollars, however, the chart takes on a different hue. U.S. dollar strength has meant that in U.S. dollar Read more…
If an impending trade war is about to create havoc for emerging markets, someone forgot to tell investors. Emerging-market equity inflows have continued apace since the specter of a trade war emerged at the beginning of March. (Dollar-denominated emerging-market debt moved to modest outflows, moving similarly to U.S. investment-grade corporate Read more…
We’ve been expressing our positive view about Vietnam as a favored investment destination in emerging markets since last June. Since then, the Ho Chi Minh Index has appreciated more than 50% in U.S. dollar terms. Source: Bloomberg Stock market rallies require a combination of economic and financial fundamentals followed by Read more…
Why Emerging Markets Could More Than Double Before the Bull Is Over Back in April, we drew attention to the ongoing rally in emerging markets that began early in 2016, corrected sharply at the time of the U.S. election last November, and then took off again as fears of a Read more…
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