In June, 2016, voters in the UK delivered one of that year’s big political surprises. Against the predictions of pollsters and pundits, they voted, by a narrow margin, to leave the European Union (EU). It was one of a series of big surprises that humbled analysts around the world who Read more
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular Read more
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level Read more
U.S. and Global Stocks: The U.S. Remains the Place to Be Here we are in September, and as we have mentioned before September is a month for market adjustments before we move into what is usually the strongest period for U.S. stocks, which is from October through April. There have Read more
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more
Turkey and Europe When strongmen hit a wall, it’s usually bad for their currencies. This has recently been proven in spades in Venezuela, as the endgame rolls on for the experiment of “Bolivarian socialism.” It’s also proving to be the case in Turkey, and that has many implications for Europe. Read more
Brexit is grinding closer, and no political solution enjoys enough support to find its way to implementation. For what it’s worth, the consensus of analysts is that UK’s Prime Minister Teresa May will eke out agreement on a deal, one that possibly includes pushing out more difficult negotiations to the Read more
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more
After further trade-war saber-rattling, U.S. markets have again regained a semblance of calm. Further unexpected developments and accompanying volatility undoubtedly lie ahead, but thus far, markets have greeted the potential of escalating trade conflicts without panic. The financial, economic, and sentiment backdrop in the United States remains strong. Investor and Read more
Let’s start with a review of U.S. and global economic, trade, finance, and banking outlooks. • The U.S.: Bullish economics, very strong. Trade negotiations not a lasting problem. • Europe: Neutral. Avoid. • Asia: Growth companies are attractive. The U.S. dollar is strong; this is neutral for Asian commodity exporters. If and when the Read more
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