Market Summary The Brexit vote and the rise of anti-E.U. parties in Europe show that big changes are underway. Europe The coming changes will be more pronounced in Europe than in the U.K., although the U.K. will also suffer volatility and aftershocks as negotiations to start the withdrawal get underway. Read more…
Brexit — What Does It Mean? The British electorate has chosen to leave the European Union. This will not be instantaneous, but will take a few years to be completed. Some people view this as a political issue: Britain is tired of strange bureaucratic regulations from Brussels. Others see it Read more…
Polls, Polls, Everywhere, and Not a Drop of Certainty Markets are possessed by Brexit fears. The market selloff that began last week may have been prompted by dramatic poll data showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of support by Brits to remain in the European Union. That’s prompting existential fears Read more…
Time For Bargain-Hunting In Europe?On Sunday and Monday we heard about two new polls in the U.K. — both showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of the “stay” vote in the contest to determine whether Britain will remain in the European Union. The momentum was visible also among the U.K.’s Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Ordinary people aren’t very ordinary. Professor Deirdre McCloskey’s recent piece in The Wall Street Journal got us thinking about the roots of western prosperity — and suggested that current nervousness about populist movements around the globe may be missing the mark. Don’t be too alarmed by rising Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments: popular revolts against corruption around the world. This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know. Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and ordinary people have usually accepted them with stoic resignation. But Read more…
Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next two to three years.” Since then we have continued to Read more…
Europe’s Banks Are Showing Cracks We’ve been expressing our worry about the health of the European banking system for years. Starting in 2012, many European banks relied on “CoCos” — contingent convertible bonds — in an attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Now, as market fear begins to price Read more…
Sunnis, Shi’ites, and Surprises After almost five years of civil war, the conflict in Syria has spilled over to Europe in the form of an ongoing refugee crisis, and now through the terrorist attacks in Paris — which, according to Islamic State claims, came as retaliation for French airstrikes. Now, Read more…
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