U.S. and Global Stocks: The U.S. Remains the Place to Be Here we are in September, and as we have mentioned before September is a month for market adjustments before we move into what is usually the strongest period for U.S. stocks, which is from October through April. There have Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more…
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more…
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more…
India Economics: Steaming Ahead The Indian stock market has seen a strong year, continuing the rise from the bottom at the end of 2016. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP When expressed in U.S. dollars, however, the chart takes on a different hue. U.S. dollar strength has meant that in U.S. dollar Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Stock and Bond Markets As trade tensions have escalated during 2018, we have told our readers that we would inform them if we believed the likelihood of a real trade war was becoming greater. Although a full-blown trade war has not yet broken out, we now Read more…
We’re no strangers to contrarian analysis. When the overwhelming weight of sentiment goes in one direction, we ask ourselves what potential pitfalls the consensus might be missing. Often that puts us in the position of identifying weaknesses and potential problems that others have glossed over — sometimes because of a Read more…
After further trade-war saber-rattling, U.S. markets have again regained a semblance of calm. Further unexpected developments and accompanying volatility undoubtedly lie ahead, but thus far, markets have greeted the potential of escalating trade conflicts without panic. The financial, economic, and sentiment backdrop in the United States remains strong. Investor and Read more…
Global Stocks Stocks are attractive in the U.S. and several other countries, driven by improvements in economic performance. Since the third quarter of 2016, U.S. corporate profits have begun to rise after a six-quarter stint of sideways earnings. Since the end of the first half of 2016, manufacturing PMIs have Read more…
Market Summary Here is a further summary of what we see to be the likely effects of Trump’s victory. Banks and Financials Banks and financials will be helped. The Dodd-Frank Act will not be entirely wiped out, but it will be moderated. As written, it is a one-size-fits-all Read more…
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