On October 16, 1971, after years of investing for himself and working as an analyst at a hedge fund and in bank management, our founder, Monty Guild, established his own private investment portfolio management practice. That practice continues today as Guild Investment Management, Inc. For 50 years, Monty, and all Read more
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall Read more
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and contain important information. Nothing in Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday press conference was surprising to us, but it served to underscore our convictions about (1) Read more
In March and April, the covid crisis sparked an unprecedented policy response from governments and central banks — first monetary, and then fiscal. As the magnitude and scope of these interventions became clear, the likely longer-term consequences for gold also became clear. Further events have only served to reinforce this Read more
Gold’s rise continues. Since the shock-and-awe fiscal and monetary response to the covid shock got underway in March and April, we’ve been pointing out the obvious long-term impetus it would provide for gold. We won’t rehash all the data here — the big picture is obvious enough. The monetary expansion Read more
U.S. and Global Stocks We don’t believe that last week’s declines represented a rational response to neutral analysis of the risks posed by COVID-19. The data we have so far lead us to believe that those risks are relatively modest — that COVID-19 will not be a global black swan, Read more
U.S. and Global Stocks “Fear? What fear?” U.S. markets have brushed off coronavirus fears and continue to move to new highs. The available data from China and elsewhere suggest that although Covid-19 (the virus’ new official designation) is more worrisome than SARS and MERS, and could yet be disruptive, it Read more
We mentioned in last week’s Market Summary that we saw heightened terrorism risks in 2020, and right on cue, the next day the U.S. assassinated the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran responded with missile strikes against U.S. facilities in Iraq. The risk of regional destabilization was, briefly, on everyone’s Read more
Markets in 2019 truly climbed a wall of worry, recovering from the late 2018 swoon and rising to new highs even in the midst of a host of political, geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns. Some of those worries have been resolved, some have been put to one side, others are Read more
The U.S. As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy at its Wednesday announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in the Fed’s accommodative stance. With the level of inflation that would be required to trigger a Fed rate increase nowhere to be found and unlikely Read more
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