The U.S. With most U.S. markets making new all-time highs, or (as in the case of the Russell 2000) breaking out to new recent highs, we remain fundamentally bullish, and fully aware that a modest correction of 1–5% may occur at any time. In keeping with our overarching strategic view, Read more
The U.S. U.S. stocks continue to forge ahead. In the ebb and flow of news related to trade, impeachment, geopolitics, and the 2020 election, we continue to note underlying reasons for strength. (Of course, the market may decline by 1–4% at any time). One of these reasons is the perpetually Read more
The U.S. With most major indices having pushed to new highs, a modest correction of a few percent is possible at any time. Still, we anticipate that by the end of the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. stock market as a whole will likely be 8–10% higher than today, Read more
The U.S. As earnings season progresses, most companies are beating estimates, and sequentially, earnings are coming in on average slightly up. So far, earnings support our view that the U.S. economy is bottoming and preparing to exit the third slowdown of the post-2009 expansion. We note that the U.S. seems Read more
The U.S. The U.S. market got a modest boost from the announcement of a trade truce with China, in which China agreed to boost some U.S. agricultural imports, and the U.S. suspended a tariff hike on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. According to the announcement, the initial deal will Read more
The U.S. The U.S. earnings season will shortly be getting underway. We suspect that as usual, companies have telegraphed enough realism to get analysts’ estimates into reachable or beatable territory. Of course, Mr Market will not just be watching EPS numbers, but looking at margins and watching for forward guidance Read more
On September 26, Guild hosted its quarterly conference call, “The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could.” More than a decade out from the Great Recession, inflation and interest rates around the world remain stuck Read more
The U.S. U.S. markets are entering a typically volatile and unproductive seasonal period, marked in this case by the emergence of new political drama surrounding potential impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Tactical traders may seek to take advantage of seasonal weakness. For our part, we continue to remain longer-term Read more
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. market is still in a correction or sideways mode, with both macro news and fears in evidence, as well as seasonal effects. We are neither as pessimistic as some news media have become, nor are we extremely enthusiastic at the present juncture. We Read more
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold U.S. investors woke up on Wednesday to news of surprisingly aggressive rate cuts from India, New Zealand, and Thailand, as more Asia Pacific central banks act to preempt a global economic slowdown. At its last meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve called an Read more
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