While some economic data — notably year-over-year GDP growth — are flashing “recession,” some other important data are contributing to positive investor and trader psychology, and helping maintain the current counter-trend stock market rally. It can be awhile before reality comes calling… and that means that we wouldn’t want to Read more…
In keeping with our perpetual motto, that “earnings are the mother’s milk of stock prices,” we are listening to a lot of earnings calls and digesting a lot of companies’ commentary about their current environment and their anticipation of future developments. We are also looking more broadly at market- and Read more…
You have probably seen many graphs like the one below, illustrating the inexorable rising cost of healthcare to the American consumer. Given how much healthcare has outstripped the price increases for other categories, how much it has outstripped wage gains, and how important health care is as a necessity of Read more…
On our ongoing theme of the revenge of the real, the most recent edition of The Economist was devoted to a critique of “big ESG” — the use of “environmental, social, and governance” metrics to grade and construct investment portfolios and indexes. It’s not a condemnation — the magazine is Read more…
The U.S. is likely already in recession. The first quarter saw a real GDP decline of 1.6%; the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now tracker suggests that the second quarter may come in at a decline of 2.1%. Two consecutive quarters of decline meets the technical definition of a recession. The question Read more…
Although we manage investment portfolios for our clients, we also view part of our vocation as being financial educators — something which, through our writing and our media appearances, we’ve been doing for almost as long as our firm has been in existence. We believe investors have a right to Read more…
As expected, the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, with a 50 or 75-basis point hike on deck as well for July. Whatever the very temporary immediate response of the market, it focuses attention very clearly on the inflation and interest rate trajectory. For the majority of Read more…
Yesterday, Wednesday, June 1, saw the publication of April JOLTS data – “job openings and labor turnover” — by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report is one of the key data sources evaluated by the Fed as it monitors the U.S. employment situation; remember that its dual mandate is Read more…
First, let’s touch on the inflation level revealed by the Guild Basic Needs Index [GBNI] — our in-house, real-world inflation measure which we compile from a simple set of data series covering consumer expenses for food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. We had to adjust the x-axis on our graph: year-on-year, Read more…
Last week, we wrote that commodity markets were signaling that “This Is Not a Drill,” and discussed events driving energy and industrial and precious metals. We deliberately didn’t discuss soft commodities — i.e., foods. Below are some thoughts about foods, food inflation, fertilizers, the potential consequences for food and beverage Read more…
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