Will the Fed Be Too Late?

We started banging the drum on inflation early this year; over the course of the year, more analysts and observers began to join us in identifying the rising risk of more troublesome and persistent inflation.  By late summer, the consensus had firmly shifted to the “persistent” camp, but the Federal Read more…

Market Summary — 11 November 2021

If only everything were linear and two-dimensional, the investor’s task would be a lot simpler.  The inflation, margin, and productivity trends noted above would be easier to translate into predictions.  Unfortunately there are confounding factors which make the problem multidimensional, non-linear, and much more unpredictable.  Among the most significant of Read more…

“Transitory Inflation” Gets Less Plausible, “Stagflation” Gets More Plausible: Guild Basic Needs Index Set to Top 32% Year-on-Year Rise

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly inflation data, showing the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers rising at a 5.4% year-on-year pace.  In the world of official CPI reporting in recent decades, that is hot.  At the same time, retirees got a reminder of their vulnerability Read more…