Really, there is only one long-term question facing investors at this juncture. Will the “new normal” that has emerged from the pandemic be enduring? Or will it prove a temporary aberration that, with however much ease or difficulty, passes and yields to the return of something more akin to the Read more…
Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation. Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will now target an average rate of 2%, tolerating overshoots to compensate for periods of lower inflation. (The Fed’s move to Read more…
Since the initial supernova of Federal Reserve and Treasury pandemic support for financial markets occurred last April, we have argued that this description-beggaring liquidity explosion was the single most important phenomenon for market participants to see and understand. Correct views and analysis of economic recovery trends and market theme and Read more…
With May data complete, the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI), our proprietary real-world inflation gauge measuring the price of a basket of four essential consumer goods, has backed slightly off April’s 25% year-over-year pace. (You can click here for a more detailed description of how we compile this measure of Read more…
Last week, we noted that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation that has become an investing commonplace in the past several decades has historically produced many “lost decades” — periods of ten years or more that saw little to no advance in the portfolio’s real value. Source: GMO Capital Of Read more…
The current investment environment suggests one critical lesson to us: the future into which we are moving is going to be very different from the immediate past. Therefore, investment strategies which have become standard-issue conventional wisdom over the past few decades are going to fail. Investors will have to reach Read more…
At this point in the post-pandemic recovery, a lot depends on who is right in the very lively “transitory vs. persistent” inflation debate. For investors, the question is particularly sharp. If you believe that Fed Chair Powell and Team Transitory are correct, you will position your portfolio quite differently than Read more…
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall Read more…
A month ago, as inflation talk claimed more investor attention, we revived our in-house inflation index — the Guild Basic Needs Index — which was designed as a simple and straightforward snapshot of the on-the-ground inflation picture faced by consumers, not gamed or massaged by statistical sleight of hand. (If Read more…
Many commodities have boomed, driven by a confluence of forces: ongoing monetary and fiscal stimulus; accelerating post-pandemic global economic growth; long-term underinvestment in commodity production capacity; pandemic-related supply chain and shipping disruptions; the rise of sustainability metrics for public companies; the push for decarbonization and the electrification of the global Read more…
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