We started banging the drum on inflation early this year; over the course of the year, more analysts and observers began to join us in identifying the rising risk of more troublesome and persistent inflation. By late summer, the consensus had firmly shifted to the “persistent” camp, but the Federal Read more…
As many states have now ended the additional pandemic unemployment benefits provided by the Federal government, we are seeing in real time that those benefits were in fact serving to suppress employment and encourage workers to stay home; unemployment is falling faster there than in states that have maintained the Read more…
Last week, we noted that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation that has become an investing commonplace in the past several decades has historically produced many “lost decades” — periods of ten years or more that saw little to no advance in the portfolio’s real value. Source: GMO Capital Of Read more…
The current investment environment suggests one critical lesson to us: the future into which we are moving is going to be very different from the immediate past. Therefore, investment strategies which have become standard-issue conventional wisdom over the past few decades are going to fail. Investors will have to reach Read more…
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall Read more…
Reading time: 3 minutes Emerging markets, like the rest of global stock markets, have enjoyed a torrid rise since the pandemic bottom just over a year ago. That rise was reinvigorated in late October and early November as word filtered into markets that covid vaccines had proven effective in accelerated Read more…
Reading time: 4 minutes The U.S. Market The U.S. is undergoing a rolling correction as industry after industry corrects and then stabilizes. Higher interest rates will benefit some industries more than others, and the key is that the industries most benefitted by higher rates are only benefitted as long as Read more…
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and contain important information. Nothing in Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday press conference was surprising to us, but it served to underscore our convictions about (1) Read more…
We note that interest rates are now above where they were when the pandemic began; the economy is sitting on many trillions of newly-created dollars; and analysts are vying for more aggressive 2020 GDP growth targets. Even the Federal Reserve is raising its growth targets, and while the majority of Read more…
Gold’s rise continues. Since the shock-and-awe fiscal and monetary response to the covid shock got underway in March and April, we’ve been pointing out the obvious long-term impetus it would provide for gold. We won’t rehash all the data here — the big picture is obvious enough. The monetary expansion Read more…
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