Even as the recovery of stock markets from the March and April decline continues and broadens, investors’ attention remains focused on Federal Reserve policy. As we described last week, Fed policy has been instrumental in preserving financial stability, not only in the U.S., but globally. With the initial crisis past, Read more…
Perceived recession risks continue to tick down, after reaching a flurry over the summer. Morgan Stanley’s recession risk model continues to register lows for the year. Source: Morgan Stanley Research They comment: “Parts of the economy are responding well to the sharp drop in interest rates since January, an indication Read more…
On September 26, Guild hosted its quarterly conference call, “The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could.” More than a decade out from the Great Recession, inflation and interest rates around the world remain stuck Read more…
The U.S. U.S. markets are entering a typically volatile and unproductive seasonal period, marked in this case by the emergence of new political drama surrounding potential impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Tactical traders may seek to take advantage of seasonal weakness. For our part, we continue to remain longer-term Read more…
The Eurozone manufacturers’ PMI, a monthly survey of purchasing managers’ views about current trends in manufacturing, fell to 45.6 in September, down from 47 in August. Anything below 50 is contractionary, and the September reading is the lowest in almost seven years. Germany’s manufacturing PMI fell to 41.4 in September, Read more…
The widely watched two-to-ten-year U.S. Treasury interest rate curve inverted briefly on Wednesday, and remains essentially flat as of this writing. The yield on the longest-dated Treasuries fell to all-time lows. The backdrop, we trust, is well-known to our readers: anxiety about trade wars, fears about slowing global growth, and Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more…
Is Your Portfolio Prepared For the New Market Environment? The change that is underway in U.S. markets is no run-of-the-mill, short-term shift. This is a sea-change — not business as usual. We’re referring to the end of a thirty-year period during which interest rates were falling — a thirty-year bull Read more…
12400 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 820 Los Angeles, CA 90025
1 310 826-8600
Mon-Fri 6:30-4:30
