Market Summary We are bullish on the U.S. market for the next few weeks, and suggest buying on dips in August. Although the market is not cheap, the U.S. is a haven for money leaving Europe because of Brexit and other European problems. We also remain bullish on Brazil and Read more…
Not Your Grandfather’s Rate Hike With the Fed funds rate set to rise for the first time after years of extraordinary and unprecedented monetary policy, we believe that market psychology will make for a difficult investing environment. This anxiety is compounded by the fact that these rate rises will not be, Read more…
Herded Into Disaster: Yield Chasing, Liquidity, and ETFs In 2002, addressing Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman on his 90th birthday, former Fed chair Ben Bernanke acknowledged the role of the Federal Reserve in worsening the financial crisis of the Great Depression rather than helping it. He said, “You’re right, we Read more…
Investment Summary World economic optimism is rising, and as a result, demand for government bonds is receding. Inflation is starting to be felt in some Asian countries, especially India. We note that new jobs and higher wages are a trend in the U.S., and we expect this trend to gain Read more…
Why We Believe that U.S. Long-term Interest Rates May Rise this Year The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in September. However, whether it does or not, longer-term rates will rise over the next few months. The Fed does not have control over long-term rates; they have only Read more…
Interest Rates At Guild Investment Management, we agree that the world is in a period of low global growth and prevalent deflationary influences. We are also in a period of banking restructuring, and as a result, we may see slower world growth for a few years. In spite of this Read more…
Investors’ Burning Questions Last weekend GIM’s Chief Investment Officer, Monty Guild, gave a speech to investors about world markets. During the Q&A, it became obvious that investors had four central concerns: 1. “The U.S. market is high; how do we know when it is topping or has topped?” 2. “What Read more…
Investors are Concerned About Future Fed Behavior… Especially Interest Rate Increases We read carefully the comments by Fed vice-chairman Fischer — the eminent, wise, and experienced central banker. Mr. Fischer believes that U.S. rates will probably rise late in late 2015. Rates will rise at least partially due to the Read more…
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