Current events in Kazakhstan underscore the significance of uranium, as nuclear energy enjoys a renaissance. Of course, although Kazakhstan accounts for roughly 40% of world uranium production, it is unlikely that unrest there will be an enduring problem for uranium supplies, although it may be unfortunate for ordinary Kazakhs. The Read more…
Two days before year-end, the S&P 500 is once again near all-time highs. In hindsight (as far as the US stock market is concerned), 2021 was a year where it would have been a good idea to: tune out all of the political haranguing and off-the-charts debt spending, ignore the Read more…
With all the reflection and analysis we’ve been offering about inflation over the past year, we should emphasize again that we do not believe the U.S. is headed for hyperinflation or any imminent financial catastrophe. While we think the very long-term trends of spending, unfunded liabilities, and corporate and government Read more…
We do not regard current market action as favorable; it is likely the harbinger of a possible near-term correction. As we indicated in our last letter, we believe that 2022 will be a year marked by volatility; the inflation landscape, the Fed’s evolving response, and potential political turmoil surrounding mid-term Read more…
As we come closer to year end, U.S. markets remain, as of this writing, within a percentage point or two of their all-time highs. We have come a long way since the first reports of a new SARS-like virus began to percolate into public awareness in January 2020. The world Read more…
We are not bullish on high-P/E ratio stocks. At this stage of the market, we expect more volatility, and we move away from companies which will not earn money during the period of rising interest rates that we expect for the next several years. Currently, having a large concentration of Read more…
As we move into the final weeks of the year, some typical seasonal dynamics are likely to begin coming into play. After a tumultuous year, tax-loss harvesting may cause significant volatility. Some names that have performed very poorly over the year may come in for additional volatile selling, and the Read more…
Statistics argue that a year as strong as this one has been will finish strongly. The crop of 2022 projections is beginning to arrive, with some holding forth for a muted or negative performance by the broad market, and others more optimistic, in the face of what will likely be Read more…
If only everything were linear and two-dimensional, the investor’s task would be a lot simpler. The inflation, margin, and productivity trends noted above would be easier to translate into predictions. Unfortunately there are confounding factors which make the problem multidimensional, non-linear, and much more unpredictable. Among the most significant of Read more…
The Federal Reserve, as expected, announced its intention to begin tapering its $120-billion-per-month asset purchase program, by $15 billion per month. The market’s response — with the S&P 500 closing the day at an all-time high — shows that the move was already largely priced and anticipated. Investors will still Read more…
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