Let’s start with a review of U.S. and global economic, trade, finance, and banking outlooks. • The U.S.: Bullish economics, very strong. Trade negotiations not a lasting problem. • Europe: Neutral. Avoid. • Asia: Growth companies are attractive. The U.S. dollar is strong; this is neutral for Asian commodity exporters. If and when the Read more…
U.S. Economics Economic data continue to impress, with wages finally moving higher by about 3% year over year, and S&P 500 profits expected to rise by 15–16%. More positive news is that the U.S. has become a net natural gas exporter, and with the creation of several new gasification and Read more…
Market Summary U.S. Markets, Japan, and Europe U.S. markets continue ahead, logging one of their longest-ever periods without a 5% correction. We do not know what the catalyst for such a correction will be, and neither does anyone else, but there are plenty of potential culprits that everyone continues to Read more…
Global economic growth is boringly slow, but it is still growth. Pessimists point out that the last few years have been the slowest economic recovery in seven decades, and that the average household in the U.S. has less income after inflation than in 2006. Optimists point out that positive change Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election Read more…
When Too Much News Can Confuse 1. GDP grew by 2.4 percent in 2015 — ignore flawed data, including GDPNow. Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth for the U.S. was just revised up to 1.4 percent annualized from an initial reading of 0.7 percent. That brings growth for the year as a Read more…
Market Summary World markets remain in a period of correction. Accordingly, we are cautious and awaiting lower prices before investing the large amount of cash in client accounts. Many now believe that the U.S. will go into a recession in 2016. We do not see that occurring; the U.S. Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. is currently in a market correction. What should we do during this correction? Does the correction signal that a recession is in store for 2016? There is no doubt that the U.S. market has followed most other world markets into a correction phase. As of Read more…
This Year In Review And The Year Ahead 2015 was a year of divergences. Developed markets outperformed developing markets, services outperformed manufacturing, and commodity-related companies and economies underperforming everything else. Broader indices often served to conceal these divergences, with some software-related names, for example, far outpacing the performance of the Read more…
Market Summary As we survey the investment horizon for 2016 the picture that we see is not highly attractive. Economic and Financial Fundamentals: Slightly Positive On a fundamental basis, the world is growing at a modest rate, and the return to a big deflationary trend in North America, Europe, or Read more…
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