Tactical Views on the Year’s End and Beyond With just a little more than a month remaining to year’s end, we’re reflecting on the market’s performance thus far as we strategize the final push and begin to think about how to plan for 2016. Two themes stand out for us: Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. market is moving ahead — as long as the U.S. Dollar stays in a sideways or declining trend. We’re bullish on U.S. stocks, but very selective about which sectors to be involved in. In our view, a normal seasonal stock market rally should ensue now that Read more…
Market Summary We believe that although a full or partial retest of recent lows may occur, the correction’s worst is over, and if the past is a guide, U.S. stocks will appreciate over the next six-month time-frame, volatility will be with us as the market retests its bottom and then Read more…
Why Are Global Markets So Interconnected? It’s because of the history of how markets and their participants have evolved. I entered the business as an analyst in 1968, after having been a part-time private investor from the late 1950s during my teenage years. My experience is that through the 1980s, stocks Read more…
Why the Stock Market Bears Have Been So Wrong Today’s negative and incorrect tone from world news commentators — including stock market commentators– is easy to understand. It is not hard to see the source of the media negativity. The negativity is due to the fact that negative news sells. The Read more…
Market Summary Economics, U.S. and Global U.S. employment numbers are positive for the last few months, and U.S. industrial production is increasing as we have predicted in these pages. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1 percent, and the U6 — often called the underemployment rate — has fallen to 12.1 percent. Read more…
Will We Get an April-to-October Market Correction in 2014? We anticipate that the U.S. and European markets will rally this year, and close 2014 with good gains. However, the crisis in Ukraine and fears (probably misplaced) about China melting down are creating a crisis of confidence in the European and emerging Read more…
Investment Summary U.S. stock market earnings and growth prospects remain positive. The U.S. market is having a normal correction, and we will use this opportunity to spend some of the cash we have raised to buy stocks at a discount. The U.S. trailing P/E as of December 31, 2013 was about 16 Read more…
Investment Summary The four emerging trends mentioned above are all significant parts of understanding the investment picture for 2014 and for the remainder of the decade. Trend #1: With large banks curtailing commodity trading businesses, there should be less risk of instability in commodity markets. The U.S. banking system could actually be Read more…
The Bullish Case for 2014: Productivity Growth is the Key We are looking forward to 2014 with optimism, and we believe the key factor supporting the U.S. and global economies in the present phase of the economic cycle will be productivity growth. Our comments below were prompted by a similar analysis recently Read more…
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