Positive and Negative Psychology In the Markets While most economists don’t believe a recession is in the cards, on average, until 2025, many market participants are beginning to fear otherwise. Their fears focus on the Fed, which is increasingly seen to be so far behind the curve in addressing inflation Read more…
Interest Rates, Inflation, and the Fed’s Coming Gut Check This morning’s CPI print hit 7.5% year-over-year, up 0.6% from the previous print, and slightly worse than expected. Some (not us) had believed that December’s number would be a peak; it was not. Given trajectories of energy and housing costs, February Read more…
Tactical Shifts Bring Improvement U.S. markets — stocks, bonds, and real estate — are all still very much in the process of digesting the arrival of higher rates. The recent respite from volatility may have had something to do with technical factors. First, managers who harvested losses at the end Read more…
How To Understand Current Volatility, and What To Expect Markets are beginning to digest the arrival of higher rates and the start of the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff. Even more than usual, there is a host of cross-currents influencing markets as the aftershocks of the pandemic continue to reverberate through the Read more…
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