Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
As we have done for decades, we are writing with our favorite global investments for 2019. This prediction is for the first half of 2019. If there is no world recession in 2019 and one is not expected for 2020, or if a good trade settlement is reached with China, Read more…
Our Outlook for 2014 in Brief North America U.S.: As we have been saying, the economy in the U.S. will grow in 2014 by a surprising amount. Corporate spending is rising and employment will follow. We anticipate U.S. GDP growth real growth of 3.5 percent and inflation of 1.2 percent, for total Read more…
As the Trauma of 2008 Fades in the Rearview Mirror, How Much Longer Before Businesses Act in a More Growth-oriented Manner? U.S. business is growing slowly, and Business Confidence is returning. 1. The U.S. economy is poised to grow at a more rapid rate. The U.S. is not alone. In spite Read more…
Global Economics Provides Reasons to Be Bullish, But Politics Poses Downside Risk As we write this, Capitol Hill’s partisan bickering and rancor have reached the conclusion we anticipated. We don’t believe that the conflict which monopolized headlines for the past two weeks is of lasting import. From our perspective, the fundamentals are Read more…
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