We say it often and we will say it again: earnings are the mother’s milk of stock prices. On a market-wide basis, a flat or declining earnings trend almost invariably accompanies a flat or declining trend in stock prices. This doesn’t mean that investors should go completely to cash (particularly Read more…
Many thanks to those who joined us on our periodic conference call on March 24. We will be editing the call into bite-sized thematic sections and providing the links to you in coming days, to watch or rewatch. If you would like a copy of the slide deck that accompanied Read more…
The tumult of countervailing forces at work in the global economy, and besetting investors, increases in strength day by day. Last week we wrote extensively on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its implications for a host of global financial and commodity markets. The invasion itself surprised many seasoned analysts who Read more…
There are years when nothing happens and years in which centuries happen. Carlos Fuentes We’ve seen a whirlwind of events in the past week. Here are some thoughts on the most important themes. Ukraine and the Fed Unfolding events in Ukraine of course represent a humanitarian catastrophe — and we Read more…
In the judgment of history, the most significant shift inaugurated by the Trump administration may prove to be a shift in the relationship between the United States and China — a shift with profound potential ramifications on global trade, regional power balances, many developing-market economies, and many global industries. The Read more…
One slightly bright spot in Europe has been the use made of the pandemic crisis by some European banks. European banks are still laden with bad debts from the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis, and unlike U.S. banks, still not adequately recapitalized, and still struggling under depressed rates. All these woes Read more…
Europe Caves on Russia… Again True to form, the Council of Europe has fallen into appeasement of the illiberal regime that lies on the European Union’s eastern flank. Russia had been suspended from the continent’s human rights watchdog council in 2014 as a result of its annexation of Crimea in Read more…
Drama has unfolded in emerging markets, starting last week as the Trump administration stiffened tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, exacerbating the Turkish lira’s sharp decline. Stock markets soured globally as investors tried to determine whether Turkey’s problems were relatively isolated, or if there could be wider ramifications. European financials Read more…
Market Summary Market summary. We are bullish on gold and some foreign markets, as well as stable growth companies in the U.S. We expect modest appreciation for the S&P 500 this year. We are avoiding Europe and Japan, and we are interested in gold and in some beaten-down markets such Read more…
Notable Trends in Global Markets Let’s look around the world at a few big trends. Trend number 1: inflation is coming back in the U.S. and in some countries where the currencies are falling — and this means interest rates, if not rising worldwide, will rise in the U.S. and Read more…
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