The trade conflict is still underway; we just read this morning about the statement made by China’s vice president, Wang Qishan, criticizing the U.S. administration’s trade policies at Davos. We continue to believe that a deal will be reached in the near term on the disagreements that are easier to Read more…
U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains. Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more…
Market Summary We begin by wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019. The U.S. stock market just concluded the worst week near the Christmas holidays in many years, and some stock market participants have been panicking. Then the economic news arrived yesterday morning. Mastercard [NYSE: MA] announced that holiday Read more…
Since the February correction, the U.S. stock market in 2018 has struggled under two major psychological clouds: the risks posed by global trade conflicts, especially the trade relationship between the U.S. and China; and the end of the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates. Escalating trade conflicts caused analysts to Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level Read more…
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more…
Where Are the Worst EM Troubles? Emerging-market stocks, for U.S. investors, have not been treated kindly by trade-war saber rattling during 2018 — as of this writing, down more than 17% from their late-January highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Until trade conflicts took center stage, though, emerging markets performed well Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Stock and Bond Markets As trade tensions have escalated during 2018, we have told our readers that we would inform them if we believed the likelihood of a real trade war was becoming greater. Although a full-blown trade war has not yet broken out, we now Read more…
Quarterly earnings are in full swing, affording investors one of their periodic views into the financial performance of a wide spectrum of companies, and the chance to hear some valuable anecdotal comments from company management about the state of their businesses, their industries, and the wider economy. Here at Guild, Read more…
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