A big debate is raging about the type of inflationary cycle the world is experiencing. How much higher? For how long? Have we peaked? Is the Fed right? Will the purchasing power of retirement savings collapse? In general, markets prefer clarity to uncertainty and confusion. Markets look for leadership, trends, Read more
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling Read more
Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise. But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate Read more
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases. Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government. Fuel was added to the fire when Read more
We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term. We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea. We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which Read more
The recession caused by the pandemic lockdowns has led to astronomical spending increases by the Federal government, and the monetization of a torrent of newly created debt by the Federal Reserve. This coordinated monetary and fiscal response sets the current crisis policy apart from what followed the Great Financial Crisis Read more
For a few weeks we’ve been explaining our optimistic view of the waning SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Data suggest that vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic is already beginning to fade. Positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all continuing to fall, even as life continues to return to Read more
Another week, another report of new market highs and apparent absurdities. Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] alone, as of this writing, has exceeded the valuation of the entire Russell 2000 index. Truly, we live in interesting times. As this note goes to press, a sharp drop in U.S. markets is showing that Read more
In each earnings season, banks are among the first to report and help set the tone for what investors expect moving forward. We already knew that the second quarter of 2020 was going to be an earnings apocalypse — so much so that the quarter itself is largely irrelevant for Read more
Like everyone else, we have been closely following news and analysis of the disease dynamics that have been developing as states have gradually eased the “safer at home” provisions that were implemented in late March and early April. In this case, for investors, reality is ultimately more significant than public Read more
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