Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise. But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate Read more…
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases. Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government. Fuel was added to the fire when Read more…
We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term. We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea. We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which Read more…
The recession caused by the pandemic lockdowns has led to astronomical spending increases by the Federal government, and the monetization of a torrent of newly created debt by the Federal Reserve. This coordinated monetary and fiscal response sets the current crisis policy apart from what followed the Great Financial Crisis Read more…
For a few weeks we’ve been explaining our optimistic view of the waning SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Data suggest that vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic is already beginning to fade. Positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all continuing to fall, even as life continues to return to Read more…
Another week, another report of new market highs and apparent absurdities. Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] alone, as of this writing, has exceeded the valuation of the entire Russell 2000 index. Truly, we live in interesting times. As this note goes to press, a sharp drop in U.S. markets is showing that Read more…
In each earnings season, banks are among the first to report and help set the tone for what investors expect moving forward. We already knew that the second quarter of 2020 was going to be an earnings apocalypse — so much so that the quarter itself is largely irrelevant for Read more…
Like everyone else, we have been closely following news and analysis of the disease dynamics that have been developing as states have gradually eased the “safer at home” provisions that were implemented in late March and early April. In this case, for investors, reality is ultimately more significant than public Read more…
Since the pandemic broke, it’s been apparent to us — as it has to many other investors — that the virus would bring significant social and economic change in its wake. The post-covid world would be different from the pre-covid world, and those changes would benefit some sectors, industries, and Read more…
Two weeks ago, we briefly mentioned the worry some investors have that the Fed’s response to the coronacrisis could result in uncontrollable inflation, or even hyperinflation. At first blush, the expansion of M2 visible since the Fed’s crisis stimulus seems to justify the concern: However, while the broad money supply Read more…
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