In last week’s letter we recommended investors buy the U.S. S&P 500 for a rally. Here are some of the reasons behind our recommendations: The U.S. labor market is gaining some traction. Job creation is slowly turning up. We aren’t getting overexcited because once again the government is playing Read more…
After last year’s U.S. presidential elec-tion, small business optimism spiked at the fastest pace since the Reagan administration. Whatever the personal political views of American small busi-ness owners, they saw a silver lining in the election result: a likely turn from the previous administration’s regulatory strategy that could make their Read more…
Last week we wrote a simple introduc-tion to digital currencies, describing the motivation of their creators, the tech-nologies that underlie them, and some of the pitfalls that may be waiting for speculators. A lot of readers found the piece helpful; if you haven’t seen it, please feel free to request Read more…
Tailwinds Still Strong For U.S. Materials Industries Back in early 2016, when Donald Trump’s victory in a contentious Republican Party primary still looked unlikely, the global commodity complex reached the bottom of the decline that had begun in mid-2014. From that bottom, commodities rose unevenly through the rest of the Read more…
Market Summary We are bullish on the U.S. market for the next few weeks, and suggest buying on dips in August. Although the market is not cheap, the U.S. is a haven for money leaving Europe because of Brexit and other European problems. We also remain bullish on Brazil and Read more…
Gold, oil, stocks, and the return of stagflation: where to find profits in the current environment. What investments have the potential to perform well under the economic and market conditions that are taking shape around us? From many different angles, the concept of “secular stagnation” suggests that we are in Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Bonds not risky? Think again. At the present juncture, equities are not the only risk assets. As we stand near the end of a 30-year credit cycle, bond yields are poised to rise. We don’t know how fast — that depends on many factors affecting the global Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election Read more…
The Fiduciary Standard Is Coming To Your Brokerage Since 1974, consumer protection for retirement savings products has been overseen not by financial regulators, as one might expect, but by the Department of Labor, under ERISA (the Employee Retirement Income Security Act). Major new changes to this law are about to Read more…
2016 Outlook As regular readers know, we view the U.S. Dollar as the key to the outlook for stocks in 2016. (In the summary section above, we explain why a strong U.S. Dollar has gone from being a positive for the market in years past, to being a negative for Read more…
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