Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Market Summary — 18 February 2021

Fourth-quarter earnings continue to come in very strong.  As of now, the fourth quarter of 2020 is coming in positive — 2% up from the final quarter of 2019, when analysts had expected an 11% decline.  Consensus now expects a 22% rise in S&P 500 earnings in 2021, and a

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Watch Those Curves

Until the pandemic broke last spring, all eyes were on the yield curve — the spread between short and long-term interest rates.  The inversion of that curve is thought to augur the approaching end of a period of economic expansion.  When long term (usually ten-year) rates drop below short term

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Market Summary — 11 Feb 2021

In our view the appropriate strategy is to be optimistic, be invested, but be careful as you build your buy list.  As we said two weeks ago, there are ways to approach an elevated market in an intelligent way: As stocks rise, move your stops up.  Take some profits in

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Inflation, Financial Repression, and the Rubicon We’ve Crossed

Our first note of 2021 made the case that the events of 2020 heralded the return of inflation.  We made two main observations.  First, the Fed’s adoption of average inflation targeting, which would give the central bank cover to tolerate persistent inflation above the 2% to make up for the

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Market Summary — February 4

Earnings season is underway.  Earnings growth has turned positive for the first time since the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic: Barring unforeseen developments on the vaccine front, which we can’t rule out but which seem unlikely, the 2021 playbook is going as expected so far: pandemic recovery, gradual

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Market Summary — 28 Jan 2021

To many experienced investors, the U.S. stock market appears dangerously high.  While investor and trader enthusiasm is taking the major stock averages higher, there is also an uncomfortable level of euphoria in certain types of stocks, themes, and groups, such as: Environmental themes:  Global electrification, battery storage, electric vehicles, solar

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Governments Aren’t the Only Ones With Money To Spend

The remarkable market rally since last year’s pandemic lows can be attributed in large part to the very large and rapid increase in real liquidity in the financial system — that is, “readily available money above and beyond what is needed for economic growth,” as Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer

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Capex and Robots

We mentioned above the robotics companies could be key beneficiaries of accelerated capex spending made by U.S. corporates flush with cash from bond and equity raises last year.  A Bain Capital reports notes that between now and 2030, American companies are expected to invest some $10 trillion into automation.  The

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Market Summary — 21 January 2021

Yesterday passed and saw the arrival of another new U.S. presidential administration and a new Congressional majority. Our attention remains focused on the two trends mentioned above: the beneficiaries of the new administration’s policy priorities, and the technology trends which, beyond the troubled limelight of big tech, are riding the

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Rethinking Investment Portfolios In Light Of the Coming Inflation

Of the critical macro variables for investors to watch, inflation is one of the most important.  Current inflation, as well as prospective changes in inflation levels and direction can result in very different outlooks for asset classes, sectors and industries, and entire economies. In the post-2008 era, broad inflation has

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Market Summary — 14 January 2021

If inflation is coming, as we described above, those investors who remember the inflation of the 1970s should know that it will not necessarily look like it did back then.  The economy is radically different in sectoral composition and weighting; industries are radically different technologically; people’s appetites and needs for

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Opportunity in Hong Kong, Trouble For Chinese Tech

Hong Kong had a rough 2020, hit by the pandemic, by escalating tensions between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China, and by ongoing resistance in Hong Kong to the effective early end of the “one country, two systems” policy that had once seen the PRC largely leave Hong

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Market Summary — 7 Jan 2021

As we write, the results of Georgia’s elections are down to the wire, but it looks likely that the Democratic Party will capture both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats.  That would give us a 50/50 split in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker — in

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Wallet Wars

Back in 2017, we wrote about the incredibly rapid pace of growth in Chinese e-commerce and financial technology.  To say the least, there’s been some water under the bridge since then — particularly the intensification of the economic and geopolitical conflict between China and the U.S.  But one of our

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Market Summary — 31 December 2020

We wish all our readers a happy New Year.  In our view, those who reckon 2020 as “the worst year ever” (such as Time magazine) need some education about the world’s dark historical catalog of plague, war, and sundry catastrophe.  Still, it was certainly a challenging year, and we are

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