Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Opportunity in Hong Kong, Trouble For Chinese Tech
Hong Kong had a rough 2020, hit by the pandemic, by escalating tensions between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China, and by ongoing resistance in Hong Kong to the effective early end of the “one country, two systems” policy that had once seen the PRC largely leave Hong
Market Summary — 7 Jan 2021
As we write, the results of Georgia’s elections are down to the wire, but it looks likely that the Democratic Party will capture both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats. That would give us a 50/50 split in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker — in
Wallet Wars
Back in 2017, we wrote about the incredibly rapid pace of growth in Chinese e-commerce and financial technology. To say the least, there’s been some water under the bridge since then — particularly the intensification of the economic and geopolitical conflict between China and the U.S. But one of our
Market Summary — 31 December 2020
We wish all our readers a happy New Year. In our view, those who reckon 2020 as “the worst year ever” (such as Time magazine) need some education about the world’s dark historical catalog of plague, war, and sundry catastrophe. Still, it was certainly a challenging year, and we are
Technology, Productivity Growth, and Why Crazy Valuations Are Not Always Crazy
The trajectory of markets in 2020 has been extraordinary and unexpected. Looking back, both the depth of the pandemic crash and the strength of the rally that has followed it make sense. They were the product, on the one hand, of severe lockdowns, economic closures, and uncertainty; and on the
Market Summary — 24 December 2020
As we noted above, on a tactical basis, we believe a correction or consolidation is becoming visible on the horizon. The market’s rise into year-end has been strong, and as good as the big-picture backdrop is, no market goes up in a straight line forever. When the pullback or consolidation
Market Summary — 17 December 2020
The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it. We agree with much of the bullish thesis. Historic excess liquidity, the control of the pandemic, fiscal support, reopening economies, and energized digitization all seem to be near-unarguable
India, Reform, and the Multipolar World
Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and
Finding Opportunity Beyond the U.S.
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling
Market Summary and Outlook: Themes For the Coming Year
As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history. Some evidence suggests that the outperformance of certain pandemic-crushed sectors and industries was not really a rotation from growth to
Growth, Growth Everywhere (Especially As Measured In Fiat Currency Units)
With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy. MRNA’s prospective vaccine, on the face of it, will be easier to roll out, since its storage requirements are not as onerous as those of PFE’s entry,
More (Market) Fuel: Chairman Powell’s Message
Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise. But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate
Vaccine Headlines Spark Many Reactions
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases. Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government. Fuel was added to the fire when
Market Summary — 12 November 2020
We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term. We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea. We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which
Central Bank Digital Currencies: The Road Map and the Motivation
Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, participating in the bid-up of alternative assets as the market has anxiously anticipated the 2020 U.S. elections. It’s important to remember, though, that there is a fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and digital currencies such as the ones being developed by
Market Summary — 5 November 2020
Given the volatility in the United States and the uncertainty of the election outcome, we remain bullish on certain sectors in the U.S. – the beneficiaries of accelerated digitization and virtualization. These winners are participants in the “durable themes” we identified in our recent conference call which we believe can
