Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Market Summary — 17 December 2020

The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it.  We agree with much of the bullish thesis.  Historic excess liquidity, the control of the pandemic, fiscal support, reopening economies, and energized digitization all seem to be near-unarguable

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India, Reform, and the Multipolar World

Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies.  But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and

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Finding Opportunity Beyond the U.S.

In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States.  This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea.  (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling

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Market Summary and Outlook: Themes For the Coming Year

As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history.  Some evidence suggests that the outperformance of certain pandemic-crushed sectors and industries was not really a rotation from growth to

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Growth, Growth Everywhere (Especially As Measured In Fiat Currency Units)

With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy.  MRNA’s prospective vaccine, on the face of it, will be easier to roll out, since its storage requirements are not as onerous as those of PFE’s entry,

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More (Market) Fuel: Chairman Powell’s Message

Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday.  We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise.  But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate

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Vaccine Headlines Spark Many Reactions

The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases.  Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government.  Fuel was added to the fire when

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Market Summary — 12 November 2020

We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term.  We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea.  We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: The Road Map and the Motivation

Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, participating in the bid-up of alternative assets as the market has anxiously anticipated the 2020 U.S. elections.  It’s important to remember, though, that there is a fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and digital currencies such as the ones being developed by

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Market Summary — 5 November 2020

Given the volatility in the United States and the uncertainty of the election outcome, we remain bullish on certain sectors in the U.S. – the beneficiaries of accelerated digitization and virtualization.  These winners are participants in the “durable themes” we identified in our recent conference call which we believe can

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Market Summary — 29 October

Global Markets Many U.S. investors and businesses are on tenterhooks ahead of an election result that may see dramatic changes in the tax and regulatory structures they must navigate.  Of course, there are many opportunities in the U.S. that can prosper regardless of the election outcome, as they are linked

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Market Summary — 15 October

Many forces are at work that could result in a correction for U.S. markets: uncertainty around the trajectory of the pandemic; the worrisome prospect of a contested presidential election; and typical seasonal weakness.  And yet, as we write, the S&P 500 remains near an all-time high.  Why?  The investment backdrop

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Market Summary — 8 October

Markets continue with sideways volatility as the election gets closer.  Given the level of uncertainty that surrounds both the election itself and the prospect of a confused and uncertain outcome that lasts for weeks, it isn’t surprising that marginal investment dollars would sit it out, waiting for clarity. We know

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Confiscation: The Enduring Pandemic Hangover?

The recession caused by the pandemic lockdowns has led to astronomical spending increases by the Federal government, and the monetization of a torrent of newly created debt by the Federal Reserve.  This coordinated monetary and fiscal response sets the current crisis policy apart from what followed the Great Financial Crisis

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