Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Technology, Productivity Growth, and Why Crazy Valuations Are Not Always Crazy
The trajectory of markets in 2020 has been extraordinary and unexpected. Looking back, both the depth of the pandemic crash and the strength of the rally that has followed it make sense. They were the product, on the one hand, of severe lockdowns, economic closures, and uncertainty; and on the
Market Summary — 24 December 2020
As we noted above, on a tactical basis, we believe a correction or consolidation is becoming visible on the horizon. The market’s rise into year-end has been strong, and as good as the big-picture backdrop is, no market goes up in a straight line forever. When the pullback or consolidation
Market Summary — 17 December 2020
The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it. We agree with much of the bullish thesis. Historic excess liquidity, the control of the pandemic, fiscal support, reopening economies, and energized digitization all seem to be near-unarguable
India, Reform, and the Multipolar World
Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and
Finding Opportunity Beyond the U.S.
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling
Market Summary and Outlook: Themes For the Coming Year
As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history. Some evidence suggests that the outperformance of certain pandemic-crushed sectors and industries was not really a rotation from growth to
Growth, Growth Everywhere (Especially As Measured In Fiat Currency Units)
With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy. MRNA’s prospective vaccine, on the face of it, will be easier to roll out, since its storage requirements are not as onerous as those of PFE’s entry,
More (Market) Fuel: Chairman Powell’s Message
Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise. But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate
Vaccine Headlines Spark Many Reactions
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases. Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government. Fuel was added to the fire when
Market Summary — 12 November 2020
We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term. We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea. We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which
Central Bank Digital Currencies: The Road Map and the Motivation
Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, participating in the bid-up of alternative assets as the market has anxiously anticipated the 2020 U.S. elections. It’s important to remember, though, that there is a fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and digital currencies such as the ones being developed by
Market Summary — 5 November 2020
Given the volatility in the United States and the uncertainty of the election outcome, we remain bullish on certain sectors in the U.S. – the beneficiaries of accelerated digitization and virtualization. These winners are participants in the “durable themes” we identified in our recent conference call which we believe can
Market Summary — 29 October
Global Markets Many U.S. investors and businesses are on tenterhooks ahead of an election result that may see dramatic changes in the tax and regulatory structures they must navigate. Of course, there are many opportunities in the U.S. that can prosper regardless of the election outcome, as they are linked
The Best Recession Ever: Faster Employment Recovery and Stronger Productivity Growth Are Bullish For Stocks
2020 has been the year of the “unprecedented.” Even the word “unprecedented” is receiving unprecedented use in Google searches. The coronacrisis resulted in a recession so short, and so deep, that even though all its consequences have yet to play out, it seems likely to be very different from any
Market Summary — 15 October
Many forces are at work that could result in a correction for U.S. markets: uncertainty around the trajectory of the pandemic; the worrisome prospect of a contested presidential election; and typical seasonal weakness. And yet, as we write, the S&P 500 remains near an all-time high. Why? The investment backdrop
“I Want To Say One Word To You, Just One Word: Polyhydroxyalkanoates.”
Mr McGuire’s one word of advice to Benjamin Bratton in The Graduate — “plastics” — may have been a good career move in 1967, but in 2020 it needs updating, hence our title above. Finding Election-Agnostic Themes As the U.S. gets closer to a divisive election, with binary outcomes possible
