Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Market Summary — 5 May 2021
The correction we have been expecting for some time is now underway. Inflation Breakout: Demand Pull Moving To Cost Push Inflation has broken out and gold has broken out to a two- or three-month high. We suggest that investors use dips to buy gold, silver, copper, and other industrial metals
Inflation, Interest Rates, & Gold, Oh My!
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall
March Data Show Inflation Is Still Climbing
A month ago, as inflation talk claimed more investor attention, we revived our in-house inflation index — the Guild Basic Needs Index — which was designed as a simple and straightforward snapshot of the on-the-ground inflation picture faced by consumers, not gamed or massaged by statistical sleight of hand. (If
Earnings Growth: Is This As Good As It Gets?
Earnings season is a busy time at Guild, since our management style emphasizes the careful selection of individual stocks rather than broad indices. That means that we typically have two or three dozen company conference calls to listen to; we find that significant details are often neglected in the summary
Market Summary — 6 April 2021
Rising inflation expectations may be even more important for investors than rising inflation. These expectations are forcing individual investors and money managers to include a new factor in their models and strategies that has been absent for the better part of two generations. Notably, expectations are essentially aspects of human
Commodity Price Drivers: The Rational, the Irrational, and the Unpredictable
Many commodities have boomed, driven by a confluence of forces: ongoing monetary and fiscal stimulus; accelerating post-pandemic global economic growth; long-term underinvestment in commodity production capacity; pandemic-related supply chain and shipping disruptions; the rise of sustainability metrics for public companies; the push for decarbonization and the electrification of the global
Market Summary — 29 April 2021
As we continue to lap the initial stages of the pandemic, a lot of numbers are going to start showing year-over-year peaks: GDP, earnings growth, inflation. Looking forward, everything may start to look like deceleration — and since the market is a discounting mechanism that looks out to the future,
Will the Feds Ban Bitcoin?
Last week we wrote about the advent of central bank digital currencies, outlining the motivations that governments and central banks have for upstaging the rise of decentralized crypto networks such as bitcoin and Ethereum. This week we’ll take a look at a trend in communication from fiscal and monetary authorities,
Market Summary — 22 April 2021
The overall market indices in the U.S. have moved sideways, near all-time highs. Many former high-flyers have corrected, with formerly exuberant cryptos and SPACs registering volatility and declines, suggesting that the market is already experiencing a sector by sector correction. The S&P 500 may see more correction soon, perhaps registering
When the Fed Creates Its Own Bitcoin: The Disruptive Potential of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have reclaimed the imagination of the investing public, especially as crypto has enjoyed another of its periodic spectacular runs since late last year. Belatedly, mainstream analysts are beginning to note what we told a crowd at the Las Vegas MoneyShow three years ago — digital
Market Summary — 15 April 2021
While we remain bullish on the U.S. market longer-term, the market is obviously ready for a normal correction. This correction may only be a 5% pullback, or it may be slightly more. Therefore we have held some cash and short positions in order to hedge out the risk and provide
The Boom Arrives on Main Street
As we noted last week, we believe that as 2021 progresses, we will have a drumbeat of increasing analyst expectations for GDP growth and economic activity. The past year’s pandemic-driven economic gyrations have been so severe that economists and macro strategists — who as a group are not the most
Market Summary — 8 April 2021
Countries We Like We are bullish on the U.S., Japan, Korea, and India, and we favor the industries mentioned below. We are optimistic on the remainder of 2021, and believe that GDP growth in the U.S. will exceed analysts’ expectations, and that they will spend the year playing catch-up. Market
What Could Derail The Economic Train? Watch Out For A Tax Policy Accident
A trend has emerged: the research departments of the big brokerage houses are gradually increasing their estimates for U.S. GDP growth in 2021. Last week, Bank of America raised its full-year target from 6.5% to 7%. Although Goldman Sachs has kept its full-year target at 7.5%, this week it pulled
Market Summary — 1 April 2021
The U.S. Market The rotation continues, and for a few more months one industry after another may see a fall in stock prices while the broad indices move ahead very slowly or rotates sideways. Interest rates will rise, but as long as five-year bond yields stay below the CPI, we
The Guild Basic Needs Index: Up 15.6% Compared to A Year Ago
Reading time: 3 minutes For many years, Guild has compiled and tracked a neutral inflation index which we call the Guild Basic Needs Index™ (GBNI). We designed it to be a simple analysis of the real state of the inflation experienced by consumers — an unchanging basket, unmanipulated by rebalancings,
