Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Inflation Is Already Here
The great debate is on: inflation or deflation? Which will win out, the massive fiscal and monetary impulse coming from the Federal stimulus measures and the huge Fed-fueled growth in the money supply? Or the sharp contraction in spending resulting from the lockdown, with all its knock-on effects? Much hangs
Market Summary — 1 October 2020
With the unedifying spectacle of the first Presidential debate behind us, and the election just over a month away, we believe markets are continuing to shift into a mode driven more by politics than by the pandemic. Daily new U.S. confirmed cases and deaths are at the same levels as
Market Swipes Left On Higher Taxes
The news cycle is still partly occupied with COVID-related coverage, and thus the markets will likely still respond to reports of rising cases, and advances and setbacks in vaccine trials. (We note that daily deaths are declining again in the U.S., and in some European countries have fallen to single
Market Summary — 24 September 2020
Market attention is shifting from coronavirus to elections as November gets closer and campaigning heats up. News coverage is already reflecting concerns that an unclear result on Election Day could lead to weeks of contention and uncertainty, and we all know how little Mr Market cares for that. Many investors,
With Cash On the Sidelines, Mergers and New Offerings May Stay Hot
COVID in the U.S. remains under control, and tracking down, despite an uptick in fatalities perhaps related to delayed reporting from the recent holiday weekend: The buoyant recovery of U.S. stock markets after March’s lockdown lows has been driven by abundant liquidity from the financial authorities, and robust spending support
Market Summary — 17 September 2020
U.S. markets have continued sideways after their decline from late August highs. As noted above, deal volume is high, with many new offerings, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors. We’ve been busy reading prospectuses and listening to presentations. We’re impressed by the difference between this time and the buildup
Digital Acceleration in India
For a few weeks we’ve been explaining our optimistic view of the waning SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Data suggest that vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic is already beginning to fade. Positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all continuing to fall, even as life continues to return to
Market Summary — 10 September 2020
U.S. markets this week have arrested their rapid slide from last week’s highs. Reports suggest that the NASDAQ’s ramp to new highs was accelerated by large-scale options trading which was then unwound as the suspected traders took profits. It remains to be seen if the correction has run its course
A Good Way To Lose Money: Be A Pessimist
There seem to be plenty of reasons for pessimism right now. Even just on the surface, so much disaster and risk: a global pandemic… political polarization at all-time highs… an election coming up so fraught that both sides are talking about civil unrest if the result is not immediately clear…
Market Summary — 3 September 2020
Another week, another report of new market highs and apparent absurdities. Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] alone, as of this writing, has exceeded the valuation of the entire Russell 2000 index. Truly, we live in interesting times. As this note goes to press, a sharp drop in U.S. markets is showing that
Real Estate and the K-Shaped Recovery
For some time the market’s action has reminded us of a verse from the New Testament: For whoever has, to him more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but whoever does not have, even what he has shall be taken away from him. Matthew 13:12 (Of course
Market Summary — 27 August 2020
For the United States, the passing of last week’s Bradley Date has reinforced the existing trend. Markets have continued higher, led by the beneficiaries and themes noted above: primarily, the technology companies whose products have permitted many businesses and individuals to function, even to thrive, in the midst of the
Three Plagues For American Cities: Covid, Unrest, and Taxes
For several weeks we’ve been presenting data that offer reasons for optimism in the face of the covid pandemic. We see reasons to think that the public health dimension of the pandemic may be closer to a resolution than the consensus believes. Better understanding of the demographics of the most
Market Summary — 20 August 2020
The S&P has capped its post-crisis recovery to reach new highs; and in spite of how rapid the climb has seemed, it is not very different from the trajectory off the 2009 crisis lows: We continue to be basically bullish on U.S. stocks. Technology continues to move ahead, while cyclicals
Sweden, Herd Immunity, Vaccines, and the End of the Pandemic
Markets have continued to rise and fall on the basis of the prospects for the rollout of an effective covid vaccine. Recent news from Russia that their authorities had approved a vaccine was greeted by market enthusiasm and medical skepticism, since the treatment hasn’t been through complete safety and efficacy
Market Summary — 13 August 2020
We believe that there are significant reasons to believe that the post-pandemic recovery may be nearer, and could be stronger, than consensus expectations. Market rotations will be ongoing, creating volatility for affected sectors and industries. Investors can either approach these rotations tactically, or simply maintain exposure to their chosen themes
