Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Market Summary — 29 October
Global Markets Many U.S. investors and businesses are on tenterhooks ahead of an election result that may see dramatic changes in the tax and regulatory structures they must navigate. Of course, there are many opportunities in the U.S. that can prosper regardless of the election outcome, as they are linked
The Best Recession Ever: Faster Employment Recovery and Stronger Productivity Growth Are Bullish For Stocks
2020 has been the year of the “unprecedented.” Even the word “unprecedented” is receiving unprecedented use in Google searches. The coronacrisis resulted in a recession so short, and so deep, that even though all its consequences have yet to play out, it seems likely to be very different from any
Market Summary — 15 October
Many forces are at work that could result in a correction for U.S. markets: uncertainty around the trajectory of the pandemic; the worrisome prospect of a contested presidential election; and typical seasonal weakness. And yet, as we write, the S&P 500 remains near an all-time high. Why? The investment backdrop
“I Want To Say One Word To You, Just One Word: Polyhydroxyalkanoates.”
Mr McGuire’s one word of advice to Benjamin Bratton in The Graduate — “plastics” — may have been a good career move in 1967, but in 2020 it needs updating, hence our title above. Finding Election-Agnostic Themes As the U.S. gets closer to a divisive election, with binary outcomes possible
Market Summary — 8 October
Markets continue with sideways volatility as the election gets closer. Given the level of uncertainty that surrounds both the election itself and the prospect of a confused and uncertain outcome that lasts for weeks, it isn’t surprising that marginal investment dollars would sit it out, waiting for clarity. We know
Confiscation: The Enduring Pandemic Hangover?
The recession caused by the pandemic lockdowns has led to astronomical spending increases by the Federal government, and the monetization of a torrent of newly created debt by the Federal Reserve. This coordinated monetary and fiscal response sets the current crisis policy apart from what followed the Great Financial Crisis
Inflation Is Already Here
The great debate is on: inflation or deflation? Which will win out, the massive fiscal and monetary impulse coming from the Federal stimulus measures and the huge Fed-fueled growth in the money supply? Or the sharp contraction in spending resulting from the lockdown, with all its knock-on effects? Much hangs
Market Summary — 1 October 2020
With the unedifying spectacle of the first Presidential debate behind us, and the election just over a month away, we believe markets are continuing to shift into a mode driven more by politics than by the pandemic. Daily new U.S. confirmed cases and deaths are at the same levels as
Market Swipes Left On Higher Taxes
The news cycle is still partly occupied with COVID-related coverage, and thus the markets will likely still respond to reports of rising cases, and advances and setbacks in vaccine trials. (We note that daily deaths are declining again in the U.S., and in some European countries have fallen to single
Market Summary — 24 September 2020
Market attention is shifting from coronavirus to elections as November gets closer and campaigning heats up. News coverage is already reflecting concerns that an unclear result on Election Day could lead to weeks of contention and uncertainty, and we all know how little Mr Market cares for that. Many investors,
With Cash On the Sidelines, Mergers and New Offerings May Stay Hot
COVID in the U.S. remains under control, and tracking down, despite an uptick in fatalities perhaps related to delayed reporting from the recent holiday weekend: The buoyant recovery of U.S. stock markets after March’s lockdown lows has been driven by abundant liquidity from the financial authorities, and robust spending support
Market Summary — 17 September 2020
U.S. markets have continued sideways after their decline from late August highs. As noted above, deal volume is high, with many new offerings, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors. We’ve been busy reading prospectuses and listening to presentations. We’re impressed by the difference between this time and the buildup
Digital Acceleration in India
For a few weeks we’ve been explaining our optimistic view of the waning SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Data suggest that vaccine or no vaccine, the pandemic is already beginning to fade. Positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all continuing to fall, even as life continues to return to
Market Summary — 10 September 2020
U.S. markets this week have arrested their rapid slide from last week’s highs. Reports suggest that the NASDAQ’s ramp to new highs was accelerated by large-scale options trading which was then unwound as the suspected traders took profits. It remains to be seen if the correction has run its course
A Good Way To Lose Money: Be A Pessimist
There seem to be plenty of reasons for pessimism right now. Even just on the surface, so much disaster and risk: a global pandemic… political polarization at all-time highs… an election coming up so fraught that both sides are talking about civil unrest if the result is not immediately clear…
Market Summary — 3 September 2020
Another week, another report of new market highs and apparent absurdities. Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] alone, as of this writing, has exceeded the valuation of the entire Russell 2000 index. Truly, we live in interesting times. As this note goes to press, a sharp drop in U.S. markets is showing that
