Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Real Estate and the K-Shaped Recovery
For some time the market’s action has reminded us of a verse from the New Testament: For whoever has, to him more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but whoever does not have, even what he has shall be taken away from him. Matthew 13:12 (Of course
Market Summary — 27 August 2020
For the United States, the passing of last week’s Bradley Date has reinforced the existing trend. Markets have continued higher, led by the beneficiaries and themes noted above: primarily, the technology companies whose products have permitted many businesses and individuals to function, even to thrive, in the midst of the
Three Plagues For American Cities: Covid, Unrest, and Taxes
For several weeks we’ve been presenting data that offer reasons for optimism in the face of the covid pandemic. We see reasons to think that the public health dimension of the pandemic may be closer to a resolution than the consensus believes. Better understanding of the demographics of the most
Market Summary — 20 August 2020
The S&P has capped its post-crisis recovery to reach new highs; and in spite of how rapid the climb has seemed, it is not very different from the trajectory off the 2009 crisis lows: We continue to be basically bullish on U.S. stocks. Technology continues to move ahead, while cyclicals
Sweden, Herd Immunity, Vaccines, and the End of the Pandemic
Markets have continued to rise and fall on the basis of the prospects for the rollout of an effective covid vaccine. Recent news from Russia that their authorities had approved a vaccine was greeted by market enthusiasm and medical skepticism, since the treatment hasn’t been through complete safety and efficacy
Market Summary — 13 August 2020
We believe that there are significant reasons to believe that the post-pandemic recovery may be nearer, and could be stronger, than consensus expectations. Market rotations will be ongoing, creating volatility for affected sectors and industries. Investors can either approach these rotations tactically, or simply maintain exposure to their chosen themes
Get Ready For More Central Bank Sorcery
In March and April, the covid crisis sparked an unprecedented policy response from governments and central banks — first monetary, and then fiscal. As the magnitude and scope of these interventions became clear, the likely longer-term consequences for gold also became clear. Further events have only served to reinforce this
Market Summary — 6 August 2020
The U.S. stock market is clearly in a blowoff phase. Investors who think that this phase must necessarily be brief may well prove incorrect. Tens of trillions of investment dollars remain on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity. We suspect that volatility, when it occurs, will be sharp and relatively
King Dollar, Gold, and Financial Repression
Gold’s rise continues. Since the shock-and-awe fiscal and monetary response to the covid shock got underway in March and April, we’ve been pointing out the obvious long-term impetus it would provide for gold. We won’t rehash all the data here — the big picture is obvious enough. The monetary expansion
Market Summary — 30 July 2020
Our interest remains focused on the tech and healthcare sectors as earnings unfold and companies offer some view of how they see the progress of economic recovery. Democrats and Republicans will likely soon wrestle through a further stimulus package, since neither wants to disappoint constituents ahead of an election season
Refinancing Your Home: Some Tips
A Note From Aubrey Ford, Our Client Relations Manager As interest rates have taken another fall, we’ve once again started hearing ads for low home-loan interest rates. Many use the angle that “this is the time to take advantage of these historically low rates, since they won’t last for long.”
When the $€¥£ Hits the Fan: Or, Why Investors Should Pay More Attention to Global Liquidity Than To Jamie Dimon
In each earnings season, banks are among the first to report and help set the tone for what investors expect moving forward. We already knew that the second quarter of 2020 was going to be an earnings apocalypse — so much so that the quarter itself is largely irrelevant for
Market Summary — 23 July 2020
We have been asked over and over these past several weeks when we thought the bleep was going to hit the fan, and the market take another big plunge. The economic and investing environments are confounding — the tape action has the appearance of a bull market, yet so many
The Election and the New Cold War
The news is shifting. Covid-19 is still front and center, of course. As we noted last week, we think the pandemic’s development is not as alarming as many believe. With several months of data now available, it has become clearer that the virus’ risks are heavily skewed towards older individuals
Market Summary — 16 July 2020
Depending upon their industry and its growth outlook, stocks in the U.S., Japan, other growing countries such as Canada, Australia, India, China, and Europe, are moving ahead. Depending upon their near- and intermediate-term outlook, some sectors are moving haltingly — sideways or down — and some are moving upward vigorously.
Who’s Really at Risk From Covid-19?
Like everyone else, we have been closely following news and analysis of the disease dynamics that have been developing as states have gradually eased the “safer at home” provisions that were implemented in late March and early April. In this case, for investors, reality is ultimately more significant than public
